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Examining finite-sample problems in the application of cointegration tests for long-run bilateral exchange rates

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Author Info
Angela Huang (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Abstract

Numerous empirical studies investigate whether exchange rates are related to `economic fundamentals' in the long-run and find a range of relationships through cointegration analysis. We report similar cointegrating relationships for the value of the New Zealand dollar relative to the US dollar (NZD/USD) and for the value of the New Zealand dollar relative to the Australian dollar (NZD/AUD). These include determinants such as commodity prices, 90-day interest rate differentials, and inflation and growth differentials. However, Godbout and van Norden (1997) demonstrate that finite-sample problems may have affected the conclusions of such cointegration studies. Through a simple Monte Carlo study, we consider whether the cointegration coefficients can reasonably be interpreted as `long-run' elasticities of the exchange rate to changes in fundamental variables. The simulation results suggest that given a relatively short span of data it is possible for cointegration analysis to indicate that a long-run relationship has been found when in fact there is only a cyclical relationship. Therefore caution is advised when interpreting the empirical results and making policy assessments about the nature of exchange movements relative to its broad trend.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP 2004/08.

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Length: 36 p.
Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2004/08

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Marie-Josée Godbout & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Reconsidering Cointegration in International Finance: Three Case Studies of Size Distortion in Finite Samples," Working Papers 97-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Modelling the Long-run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 519-537, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
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  7. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Niels Haldrup & Michael Jansson, 1999. "Spurious Regression, Cointegration, and Near Cointegration: A Unifying Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-005/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Anella Munro, 2004. "What drives the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, june. [Downloadable!]
  12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anella Munro, 2005. "UIP, Expectations and the Kiwi," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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