Spurious Regression, Cointegration, and Near Cointegration: A Unifying Approach
AbstractThis paper introduces a representation of an integrated vector time series in which the coefficient of multiple correlation computed from the long-run covariance matrix of the innovation sequences is a primitive parameter of the model. Based on this representation, we propose a notion of near cointegration, which helps bridging the gap between the polar cases of spurious regression and cointegration. Two applications of the model of near cointegration are provided. As a first application, the properties of conventional cointegration methods under near cointegration are characterized, hereby investigating the robustness of cointegration methods. Secondly, we illustrate how to obtain local power functions of cointegration tests that take cointegration as the null hypothesis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt5b13w0rp.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2000
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cointegration; spurious regression; near cointegration; cointegration tests; local power function; Brownian motion;
Other versions of this item:
- Niels Haldrup & Michael Jansson, 1999. "Spurious Regression, Cointegration, and Near Cointegration: A Unifying Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-005/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986.
"Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
781R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 1987.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987.
"Weak Convergence of Sample Covariance Matrices to Stochastic Integrals via Martingale Approximations,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
846, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1988. "Weak Convergence of Sample Covariance Matrices to Stochastic Integrals Via Martingale Approximations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 528-533, December.
- Angela Huang, 2004. "Examining finite-sample problems in the application of cointegration tests for long-run bilateral exchange rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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