A Comparison of Two Alternative Monetary Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination over the Long-Run
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to compare the conventional monetary model of the exchange rate with an alternative model, which incorporates a stock price measure and is based on Friedman?s money demand function. These models are then compared using data from the UK, Canada and the USA, applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach and the Phillips-Hansen approaches to cointegration. Although the results from the conventional monetary model are poor, the version which includes stock prices produces evidence of a long-run relationship, which has more appropriate long-run coefficients than the conventional model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Econometric Research Association in its journal International Econometric Review.
Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Sairler Sokak, No:32/C, Gaziosmanpasa, Ankara, Turkey
Phone: + 90 312 447 51 95
Fax: + 90 312 447 51 95
Web page: http://www.era.org.tr/
More information through EDIRC
Exchange Rate; Stock Price; ARDL; Cointegration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Groen, Jan J. J., 2000.
"The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
- Jan J.J. Groen, 1998. "The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-082/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2005.
"Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission,"
NBER Working Papers
11166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, 09.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Working Paper Series 0452, European Central Bank.
- James P. Dow, Jr. & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 1998. "The effect of stock prices on the demand for money market mutual funds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997.
"Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Massimo Caruso, 2006. "Stock market fluctuations and money demand in Italy, 1913-2003," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 576, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Groen, Jan J J, 2002. " Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 361-80, September.
- Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2002.
"Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area,"
Working Paper Series
0119, European Central Bank.
- Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.
- David O. Cushman, 2000. "The failure of the monetary exchange rate model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 591-603, August.
- Richards, Anthony, 2005.
"Big Fish in Small Ponds: The Trading Behavior and Price Impact of Foreign Investors in Asian Emerging Equity Markets,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 1-27, March.
- Anthony Richards, 2004. "Big Fish in Small Ponds: The Trading Behaviour and Price Impact of Foreign Investors in Asian Emerging Equity Markets," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Boyle, Glenn W, 1990. "Money Demand and the Stock Market in a General Equilibrium Model with Variable Velocity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1039-53, October.
- Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
- French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991.
"Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-26, May.
- Kenneth R. French & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 3609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, Clive W.J. & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin W., 1998.
"A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt9bk607p6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
- Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-45, April.
- Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October.
- Bruce Morley, 2007. "The monetary model of the exchange rate and equities: an ARDL bounds testing approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 391-397.
- Smith, C. E., 1992. "Stock markets and the exchange rate: A multi-country approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 607-629.
- Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & James Lothian, 2001. "The monetary approach to exchange rates and the behaviour of the Canadian dollar over the long run," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 475-481.
- Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998.
"Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel,"
98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
- Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
- George Tawadros, 2001. "The predictive power of the monetary model of exchange rate determination," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 279-286.
- Solnik, Bruno, 1987. " Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-49, March.
- Massimo Caruso, 2006. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Money Demand in Italy, 1913-2003," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35(1), pages 1-47, 02.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. F. Cosar).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.