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Econometric Evaluation of the Exchange Rate in Models of the UK Economy

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  • Fisher, P G, et al

Abstract

This paper evaluates the exchange rate mechanisms in current large-scale models of the U.K. economy and finds that each has some shortcomings. A new, econometrically preferable, specification is developed. Previous empirical failures of exchange rate models relate to an inadequate treatment of expectations and neglect of the simultaneity between exchange rates and interest rates: the instrumental variable methods employed here remedy these deficiencies. The preferred equation, a forward-looking modified uncovered interest rate parity relation, outperforms a random walk. The sensitivity of overall model properties is examined by replacing the existing equations with the new equation and repeating standard simulation experiments. Coauthors are S. K. Tanna, D. S. Turner, K. F. Wallis, and J. D. Whitley. Copyright 1990 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Fisher, P G, et al, 1990. "Econometric Evaluation of the Exchange Rate in Models of the UK Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1230-1244, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:100:y:1990:i:403:p:1230-44
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    Cited by:

    1. Foreman-Peck, James & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ma, Yue, 2000. "A monthly econometric model of the transmission of the Great Depression between the principal industrial economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 515-544, December.
    2. Abdul RASHID, 2009. "Testing The Modified-Combined Ppp And Uip Hypothesis In South Asian Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    3. MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2004. "Currency spillovers and tri-polarity: a simultaneous model of the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-111, February.
    4. Hall, S. G. & Garratt, A., 1995. "Model consistent learning and regime switching in the London Business School model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 87-95, April.
    5. Kai Leitemo, 2006. "Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 35-64, February.
    6. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
    7. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
    8. Mr. Oral Williams & Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji, 2004. "Inflation Dynamics in the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2004/029, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    10. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "Testing the uncovered interest parity using traded volatility, a time-varying risk premium and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1168-1186, November.
    11. Kenneth F. Wallis, 1993. "On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconometric Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(2), pages 113-130, June.
    12. Hélène Harasty & Jean Le Dem, 1992. "Réunification allemande et croissance européenne : un espoir déçu ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 39(1), pages 195-217.
    13. Church, Keith B. & Mitchell, Peter R. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1996. "Targeting inflation: Comparative control exercises on models of the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 169-184, April.

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