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Exchange Rates and Asymmetric Shocks in Small Open Economies

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Author Info

  • Alexius, Annika

    (Department of Economics)

  • Post, Erik

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

If floating exchange rates stabilize shocks rather than create shocks, a country that joins a monetary union or fixes its exchange rate looses a stabilizing mechanism. We use a first difference structural VAR on trade weighted macroeconomic data to study the role of floating exchange rates for five "small open economies" with inflation targets. By including both domestic and foreign variables and using a combination of long and short-run restrictions, we identify asymmetric shocks more carefully than previous studies. Only in Sweden and Canada does the nominal exchange rate appreciate significantly in response to asymmetric demand shocks and depreciate to asymmetric supply shocks. Most exchange rate movements are caused by speculation and are not responses to fundamental shocks. However, these exchange rate shocks have negligible effects on output and inflation. Our findings indicate that exchange rates are neither stabilizing nor destabilizing but may be loosely characterized as disconnected from the rest of the economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2005:10.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 15 Mar 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2005_010

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
Email:
Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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Keywords: Exchange rates; asymmetric shocks; structural VAR;

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References

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
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  6. Alexius, Annika & Post, Erik, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Asymmetric Shocks in Small Open Economies," Working Paper Series 2005:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  7. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 23-43, January.
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  14. Alexius, Annika, 2005. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 555-566, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Engström, Per & Holmlund, Bertil, 2006. "Tax Evasion and Self-Employment in a High-Tax Country: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006:12, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  2. Chen, Jie, 2006. "The Dynamics of Housing Allowance Claims in Sweden: A discrete-time hazard analysis," Working Paper Series 2006:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  3. Annika Alexius & Erik Post, 2008. "Exchange rates and asymmetric shocks in small open economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 527-541, November.
  4. Berg, Lennart & Berger, Tommy, 2005. "The Q theory and the Swedish housing market –an empirical test," Working Paper Series 2005:19, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  5. Alexius, Annika & Post, Erik, 2006. "Cointegration and the stabilizing role of exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2006:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  6. Hallberg, Daniel, 2006. "Cross-national differences in income poverty among Europe´s 50+," Working Paper Series 2006:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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