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The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Hilde C. Bjørnland and Håvard Hungnes () (Statistics Norway )
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This study compares the forecasting performance of a structural exchange rate model that combines the purchasing power parity condition with the interest rate differential in the long run, with some alternative models. The analysis is applied to the Norwegian exchange rate. The long run equilibrium relationship is embedded in a parsimonious representation for the exchange rate. The structural exchange rate representation is stable over the sample and outperforms a random walk in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise at one to four horizons. Ignoring the interest rate differential in the long run, however, the structural model no longer outperforms a random walk.
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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number
340.
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Date of creation: Feb 2003Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:340Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O.Box 8131 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway Phone: (+47) 21 09 00 00 Fax: (+47) 21 09 49 73 Email: Web page: http://www.ssb.no More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Equilibrium real exchange rate ; cointegration VAR ; out-of-sample forecasting ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
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Hilde C. Bjørnland and Håvard Hungnes, 2005.
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Other versions:
Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Hungnes, Håvard, 2005.
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[Downloadable!] Hilde C Bjørnland & Håvard Hungnes, 2008.
"The Commodity Currency Puzzle ,"
Icfai University Journal of Monetary Economics ,
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Roger Bjørnstad and Eilev S. Jansen, 2007.
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Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005.
"Monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy ,"
Memorandum
31/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
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