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Overshooting and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle: a reappraisal

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  • Hairault, Jean-Olivier
  • Patureau, Lise
  • Sopraseuth, Thepthida

Abstract

Transition to floating exchange rate regimes has led to sharp increases in nominal and real exchange rate volatilities with no corresponding changes in the distribution of fundamental macroeconomic variables. In the spirit of Dornbusch [1976], we assess whether nominal exchange rate overshooting is responsible for this phenomenon. As long as uncovered interest rate parity holds, nominal exchange rate overshooting is linked to a persistent fall in the spread between domestic and foreign nominal interest rates. We thus develop a limited participation model in an international setting. Introducting adjustment costs on money holdings in the limited participation framework substantially raises the magnitude of the overshooting dynamics. Overshooting indeed plays a key role in understanding the extreme nominal exchange rate volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (June)
Pages: 615-643

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:23:y:2004:i:4:p:615-643

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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References

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  1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1997. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1249, June.
  2. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  3. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2001. "Monetary policy regimes and beliefs," Working Paper 9905, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
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  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hairault, J.O. & Portier, F., 1992. "Money New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Business Cycles," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92.32, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
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  17. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 231-272, April.
  18. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1991. "Modeling the liquidity effect of a money shock," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-34.
  19. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  20. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  21. Jean-Olivier HAIRAULT & Franck PORTIER, 1993. "Monnaie et Inflation dans un modèle de cycles réels," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1993042, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
  2. Kollmann, Robert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Lise Patureau, 2002. "Pricing-to-market and limited participation : a joint explanation to the exchange rate disconnect puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 299, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. de Blas, Beatriz, 2010. "Exchange rate dynamics in economies with portfolio rigidities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 366-382, June.
  5. Karamé, Frédéric & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2008. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics: Does theory meet the data?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1041-1087, April.
  6. Murphy, Austin, 2008. "An empirical investigation of investor expectations in the currency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 108-133.
  7. Murphy, Austin & Zhu, Yun (Ellen), 2008. "Unraveling the complex interrelationships between exchange rates and fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1150-1160, June.
  8. Patureau, Lise, 2007. "Pricing-to-market, limited participation and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3281-3320, October.

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