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Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Inference

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Author Info
Jean-Marie Dufour ()
Denis Pelletier
Éric Renault ()

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Abstract

We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses considered are nonlinear, the proposed methods only require linear regression techniques as well as standard Gaussian asymptotic distributional theory. Bootstrap procedures are also considered. For the case of integrated processes, we propose extended regression methods that avoid nonstandard asymptotics. The methods are applied to a VAR model of the U.S. economy.

Nous proposons des méthodes pour tester des hypothèses de non-causalité à différents horizons, tel que défini dans Dufour et Renault (1998, Econometrica). Nous étudions le cas des modèles VAR en détail et nous proposons des méthodes linéaires basées sur l'estimation d'autorégressions vectorielles à différents horizons. Même si les hypothèses considérées sont non linéaires, les méthodes proposées ne requièrent que des techniques de régression linéaire de même que la théorie distributionnelle asymptotique gaussienne habituelle. Dans le cas des processus intégrés, nous proposons des méthodes de régression étendue qui ne requièrent pas de théorie asymptotique non standard. L'application du bootstrap est aussi considérée. Les méthodes sont appliquées à un modèle VAR de l'économie américaine.

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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2003s-61.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2003s-61

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Related research
Keywords: time series; Granger causality; indirect causality; multiple horizon causality; autoregression; autoregressive model; vector autoregression; VAR; stationary process; nonstationary process; integrated process; unit root; extended autoregression; bootstrap; Monte Carlo; macroeconomics; money; interest rates; output; inflation; séries chronologiques; causalité; causalité indirecte; causalité à différents horizons; autorégression; modèle autorégressif; autorégression vectorielle; VAR; processus stationnaire; processus non stationnaire; processus intégré; racine unitaire; autorégression étendue; bootstrap; Monte Carlo; macroéconomie; monnaie; taux d'intérêt; production; inflation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Efficient Tests of Long-Run Causation in Trivariate VAR Processes with a Rolling Window Study of the Money-Income Relationship," Macroeconomics 0407013, EconWPA, revised 17 May 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Yiannis Kamarianakis & Vagelis Kaslis, 2005. "Geographical competition-complementarity relationships between Greek regional economies," ERSA conference papers ersa05p552, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  3. Judith A. Clarke & Mukesh Ralhan, 2005. "Direct and Indirect Causality Between Exports and Economic Output for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Horizon Matters," Econometrics Working Papers 0512, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  4. Vincent Bouvatier, 2007. "Hot Money Inflows and Monetary Stability in China: How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 161, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jean-Marie Dufour & David Tessier, 2006. "Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between Monetary Policy Variables and Stock Prices," Working Papers 06-39, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. J. Breitung & D. Jagodzinski, . "Prognoseeigenschaften alternativer Indikatoren für die Konjunkturentwicklung in Deutschland," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2002-36, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  7. Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot money inflows in China : How the people's bank of China took up the challenge," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06011, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  8. Jonathan B. Hill, 2005. "Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization up to Three Steps Ahead: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited," Econometrics 0503016, EconWPA, revised 23 Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
  9. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & PELLETIER, Denis & RENAULT, Éric, 2003. "Short run and long run causality in time series: Inference," Cahiers de recherche 2003-16, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited," Working Papers 0403, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot Money Inflows in China : How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00111153_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  12. AndrŽ, NYEMBWE & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN, 2005. "North-South Asymmetric Relationships : Does the EMU Business Affect Small African Economies ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005032, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  13. Dimitris Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2009. "On causal Relationships Between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Better Than You Think," Studies in Economics 0909, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization for General Horizons: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited," Econometrics 0402002, EconWPA, revised 01 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jean-Marie Dufour & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2008. "Short and long run causality measures: theory and inference," Economics Working Papers we083720, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
  16. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JOUINI, Tarek, 2005. "Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing," Cahiers de recherche 2005-12, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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