What drives China's current account?
AbstractThe paper offers an empirical taxonomy of the factors driving China's current account. A simple present-value model with non-tradeable goods explains more than 70 percent of current account variability over the period 1982–2007, including the persistent surpluses since 2001. It also correctly predicts the decline of China's current account since 2008. Expected increases in the prices of non-tradeables (e.g. housing and medical care) and expected declines in net output (GDP less investment and government spending) are the main channels of external adjustment. Much of China's current account surplus seems driven by shocks that have global effects by persistently depressing the world real interest rate. This is consistent with recent theoretical models that suggest that factors related to China's domestic financial development are key in understanding global imbalances.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.
Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443
China; Current account; Present-value models; External adjustment; Global imbalances; Savings glut; Precautionary saving;
Other versions of this item:
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hoffman, Mathias, 2001.
"The Relative Dynamics of Investment and the Current Account in the G7-Economies,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C148-63, May.
- Hoffmann, Mathias, 2000. "The relative dynamics of investment and the current account in the G-7 economies," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0005, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
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