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A provincial view of global imbalances: regional capital flows in China

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  • Samuel Cudré
  • Mathias Hoffmann

Abstract

We model capital flows among Chinese provinces using a theory-based variance decomposition that allows us to gauge the importance of various channels of external adjustments at the regional level: variation in intertemporal prices—domestic and international interest rates and the real exchange rate—and intertemporal variation in quantities (cash flows of output, investment and government spending). We find that our simple framework can account for around 85 percent of the variation in regional capital flows over the 1985-2010 period. Our results suggest that the relative importance of private and state-owned enterprises, a province’s level of integration into the world economy and its sectoral composition play an important role for external adjustment vis-à-vis the rest of China and the world. Specifically, we find strong empirical support for the view that differential access of private and state-owned enterprises to finance is a key driver of China’s surpluses. We discuss implications of our results for global imbalances in capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Cudré & Mathias Hoffmann, 2014. "A provincial view of global imbalances: regional capital flows in China," ECON - Working Papers 162, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:162
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, S. & Han, H., 2018. "Government size, institutional quality, and capital flows across regions in China: a specific exploration on the failure of capital flows across Shanhai Pass," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277515, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Chen, Changsheng & Girardin, Eric & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2017. "Global slack and open economy Phillips curves – A province-level view from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 74-87.
    3. Yushi Yoshida & Weiyang Zhai, 2021. "Revisiting the Glick–Rogoff Current Account Model: An Application to the Current Accounts of BRICS Countries," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 265-291, Springer.
    4. Deng, Liuchun & Wang, Boqun, 2016. "Regional capital flows and economic regimes: Evidence from China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 80-83.
    5. Yu-Hsi Chou & Chun-Yen Tsai, 2021. "Sources of current account fluctuations in Taiwan: 1989–2015," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 2125-2151, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Chinese provinces; capital flows; current account; global imbalances; external adjustment; present-value models; regional business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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