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Globalization and the Sustainability of Large Current Account Imbalances: Size Matters

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Joshua Aizenman
Yi Sun

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the sustainability of large current account imbalances in the era when the Chinese GDP growth rate and current account/GDP exceed 10%. We investigate the size distribution and the durability of current account deficits during 1966-2005, and report the results of a simulation that relies on the adding-up property of global current account balances. Excluding the US, we find that size does matter: the length of current account deficit spells is negatively related to the relative size of the countries' GDP. We conclude that the continuation of the fast growth rate of China, while maintaining its large current account/GPD surpluses, would be constrained by the limited sustainability of the larger current account deficits/GDP of countries that grow at a much slower rate. Consequently, short of the emergence of a new "demander of last resort," the Chinese growth path would be challenged by its own success.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13734.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13734

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313. [Downloadable!]
  2. repec:rus:hseeco:317881 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jiandong Ju & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Domestic Institutions and the Bypass Effect of Financial Globalization," NBER Working Papers 13148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Robert C. Feenstra & Chang Hong, 2007. "China's Exports and Employment," NBER Working Papers 13552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Aizenman, Joshua & Pinto, Brian & Radziwill, Artur, 2007. "Sources for financing domestic capital - Is foreign saving a viable option for developing countries?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 682-702, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 13619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jaewoo Lee & Joshua Aizenman, 2006. "Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long-Run View of the Large International Reserves Hoarding," IMF Working Papers 06/280, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 06/229, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"," NBER Working Papers 11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2006. "Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism-Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," NBER Working Papers 12718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2007-1), pages 1-80. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union: Equilibrium, Excess, and EU-Phoria," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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