Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Globalization and the Sustainability of Large Current Account Imbalances: Size Matters

Contents:

Author Info

  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Sun, Yi

Abstract

This paper evaluates the sustainability of large current account imbalances in the era when the Chinese GDP growth rate and current account/GDP exceed 10%. We investigate the size distribution and the durability of current account deficits during 1966-2005, and report the results of a simulation that relies on the adding-up property of global current account balances. Excluding the US, we find that size does matter: the length of current account deficit spells is negatively related to the relative size of the countries’ GDP. We conclude that the continuation of the fast growth rate of China, while maintaining its large current account/GPD surpluses, would be constrained by the limited sustainability of the larger current account deficits/GDP of courtiers that grow at a much slower rate. Consequently, short of the emergence of a new “demander of last resort,†the Chinese growth path would be challenged by its own success.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/2bs193w4.pdf;origin=repeccitec
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt2bs193w4.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt2bs193w4

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Santa Cruz, CA 95064
Phone: (831) 459-2743
Fax: (831) 459-5077
Email:
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/ucscecon/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: current account imbalances; growth; size; adding-up property;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
  2. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"," NBER Working Papers 11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
  4. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  5. Robert C. Feenstra & Chang Hong, 2010. "China's Exports and Employment," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 167-199 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
  7. Jiandong Ju & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Domestic Institutions and the Bypass Effect of Financial Globalization," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 173-204, November.
  8. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto & Artur Radziwill, 2004. "Sources for financing domestic capital - is foreign saving a viable option for developing countries?," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0288, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  9. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 3186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Jaewoo, 2007. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism-Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5r95t1xf, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
  13. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 1993. "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 140, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
  16. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
  18. Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 06/229, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  21. Richard N. Cooper, 2005. "Living with Global Imbalances: A Contrarian View," Policy Briefs PB05-03, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  22. repec:rus:hseeco:317881 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Jaewoo Lee & Joshua Aizenman, 2006. "Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long-Run View of the Large International Reserves Hoarding," IMF Working Papers 06/280, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Bolos Marcel & Otgon Cristian & Pop Razvan, 2011. "Substantiation Of The Public Debt Sustainability Using Kalman Filter," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 323-334, December.
  2. Chris Hunt, 2008. "Financial turmoil and global imbalances: the end of Bretton Woods II?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 71, September.
  3. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Minsoo & Park, Donghyun, 2012. "The Relationship between Structural Change and Inequality: A Conceptual Overview with Special Reference to Developing Asia," ADBI Working Papers 396, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  4. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Nancy P. Marion, 2013. "China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," NBER Working Papers 19739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2014. "How macroeconomic imbalances interact? Evidence from a panel VAR analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-5, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  6. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union: Equilibrium, Excess, and EU-Phoria," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Aizenman, Joshua & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2010. "Global Imbalances: Is Germany the new China? A Skeptical View," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3zx245jn, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  8. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2009. "An Assessment of the Current Account Sustainability in Romania – An Inter-temporal Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 23-41, June.
  9. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-42, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  10. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2008. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account – Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Occasional Paper Series 88, European Central Bank.
  11. Körner, Finn Marten, 2011. "An equilibrium model of 'global imbalances' revisited," Violette Reihe Arbeitspapiere 33/2011, Promotionsschwerpunkt "Globalisierung und Beschaeftigung".
  12. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008. "The US as the “demander of last resort†and its implications on China’s current account," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt986646mz, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  13. Smith, Constance E., 2011. "External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1195-1213, October.
  14. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
  15. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "The US as the "Demander of Last Resort" and its Implications on China's Current Account," NBER Working Papers 14453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Marion, Nancy P., 2014. "The People's Republic of China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," ADBI Working Papers 455, Asian Development Bank Institute.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt2bs193w4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.