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Globalization and the sustainability of large current account imbalances: Size matters

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Sun, Yi

Abstract

This paper evaluates the sustainability of large current account imbalances in the era when the Chinese GDP growth rate and current account/GDP exceed 10%. We investigate the size distribution and the durability of current account deficits during 1966-2005, and report the results of a simulation that relies on the adding-up property of global current account balances. Excluding the US, we find that size does matter: the length of current account deficit spells is negatively related to the relative size of the countries' GDP. We conclude that the continuation of the fast growth rate of China, while maintaining its large current account/GPD surpluses, would be constrained by the limited sustainability of the larger current account deficits/GDP of courtiers that grow at a much slower rate. Consequently, short of the emergence of a "new demander of last resort", the Chinese growth path would be challenged by its own success.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 35-44

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:32:y:2010:i:1:p:35-44

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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Keywords: Current account imbalances Growth Size Adding-up property;

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References

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  12. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Jaewoo, 2007. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism-Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5r95t1xf, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "How Macroeconomic Imbalances Interact? Evidence from a Panel VAR Analysis," Working Papers 2013-42, CEPII research center.
  2. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
  3. Chris Hunt, 2008. "Financial turmoil and global imbalances: the end of Bretton Woods II?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 71, September.
  4. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2008. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account – Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Occasional Paper Series 88, European Central Bank.
  5. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Marion, Nancy P., 2014. "The People's Republic of China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," ADBI Working Papers 455, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  6. Sengupta, Rajeswari & Aizenman, Joshua, 2010. "Global imbalances: Is Germany the new China? A skeptical view," MPRA Paper 25578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Minsoo & Park, Donghyun, 2012. "The Relationship between Structural Change and Inequality: A Conceptual Overview with Special Reference to Developing Asia," ADBI Working Papers 396, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  8. Bolos Marcel & Otgon Cristian & Pop Razvan, 2011. "Substantiation Of The Public Debt Sustainability Using Kalman Filter," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 323-334, December.
  9. Körner, Finn Marten, 2011. "An equilibrium model of 'global imbalances' revisited," Violette Reihe Arbeitspapiere 33/2011, Promotionsschwerpunkt "Globalisierung und Beschaeftigung".
  10. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "The US as the "Demander of Last Resort" and its Implications on China's Current Account," NBER Working Papers 14453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Nancy P. Marion, 2013. "China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," NBER Working Papers 19739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008. "The US as the “demander of last resort†and its implications on China’s current account," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt986646mz, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  13. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2009. "An Assessment of the Current Account Sustainability in Romania – An Inter-temporal Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 23-41, June.
  14. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Smith, Constance E., 2011. "External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1195-1213, October.
  16. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-42, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.

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