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Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991

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Author Info
David F. Hendry (Economics Department, Oxford University, UK)

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Abstract

UK inflation has varied greatly in response to many economic policy and exchange-rate regime shifts, two world wars and two oil crises, as well as legislative and technological changes. Inflation is modelled as responding to excess demands from all sectors of the economy: goods and services, factors of production, money, financial assets, foreign exchange, and government deficits. Equilibrium-correction terms are developed for each of these over the sample. Indicator variables and commodity prices capture turbulent years. Variables representative of most theories of inflation matter empirically, yielding an eclectic model inconsistent with any 'single-cause' explanation. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2001-v16.3/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 255-275
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:3:p:255-275

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    Other versions:
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  4. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
    Other versions:
  5. Nickell, Stephen, 1990. "Inflation and the UK Labour Market," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 26-35, Winter.
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  11. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rowlatt, Penelope A, 1988. "Analysis of the Recent Path of UK Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 335-60, November.
  13. Surrey, M J C, 1989. "Money, Commodity Prices and Inflation: Some Simple Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 219-38, August.
  14. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-31, November.
  17. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Neil Ericsson, 2004. "The ET interview: professor David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 811, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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