Does Modern Econometrics replicate the Phillips Curve?
AbstractThis paper reexamines the existence of a long-run relationship between wages and unemployment in the U.K., with data over the period 1860-1913 used by A.W. Phillips to derive the well-known Phillips Curve. Using Johansen's maximum likelihood method of testing for cointegration, a long-run inverse relationship is indeed depicted between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. However, the main impact of deviations from this long-run equilibrium is on the unemployment rate rather than the rate of inflation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 1996015.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 1996
Date of revision:
Phillips Curve; long-run equilibrium; cointegration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 1992.
"Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: an overview," International Finance Discussion Papers 415, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983.
Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 277-304, March.
- ENGLE, Robert F. & HENDRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, . "Exogeneity," CORE Discussion Papers RP -516, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1979. "Exogeneity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 162, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Engle, R. & Hendry, D., 1990.
"Testing Super Exogeneity And Invariance In Regression Models,"
Economics Series Working Papers
99100, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
- Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- C Bean, 1992.
"European Unemployment: A Survey,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Wulwick, Nancy J, 1989. "Phillips' Approximate Regression," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 170-88, January.
- Gilbert, C L, 1976. "The Original Phillips Curve Estimates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(169), pages 51-57, February.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Frédéric Lerais & Hervé Le Bihan & Eric Heyer, 2000.
"Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen,"
Économie et Prévision,
Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 43-60.
- Heyer, E. & Le Bihan, H. & Lerais, F., 1999. "Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1999-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008.
"The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004,"
Economics Series Working Papers
409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne DAVISTER-LOGIST).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.