IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdm/wpaper/2015-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Use of Monetary Aggregates as Indicators of the Future Evolution of Consumer Prices: Monetary Growth and Inflation Target

Author

Listed:
  • Ramos Francia Manuel
  • Noriega Antonio E.
  • Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso

Abstract

We construct inflation pressure indicators based on the long-run relationship that exists between monetary aggregates and prices, once it is adequately adjusted to account for the scale of transactions, as well as the opportunity cost of holding money. To that end, an extensive long-run econometric analysis of money demand is carried out for Mexico using the monetary aggregate M1. Based on it, two indicators are calculated, the money gap and the m* indicator. Such gap measures deviations of real M1 from its relationship with its long-run determinants. The m* indicator is based on the estimation of the price index which is congruent with the quantity of M1 in the economy once it is adjusted for the long-run tendency of its determinants considering its long-run coefficients. Our results indicate that monetary policy has been congruent with the inflation target of Banco de México.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramos Francia Manuel & Noriega Antonio E. & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2015. "The Use of Monetary Aggregates as Indicators of the Future Evolution of Consumer Prices: Monetary Growth and Inflation Target," Working Papers 2015-14, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2015-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/documentos-de-investigacion-del-banco-de-mexico/%7BE96B3DAE-77D7-C50E-F060-E96D90E5B905%7D.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McKinnon, Ronald I, 1982. "Currency Substitution and Instability in the World Dollar Standard," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 320-333, June.
    2. Carlos Vargas‐Silva, 2009. "The Tale of Three Amigos: Remittances, Exchange Rates, and Money Demand in Mexico," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, February.
    3. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
    4. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Pablo Fajnzylber & J. Humberto López, 2008. "Remittances and Development : Lessons from Latin America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6911, December.
    7. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
    8. Manuel Ramos-Francia, 1993. "The Demand for Money in an Unstable Economy: A Cointegration Approach for the Case of Mexico," Working Papers 9306, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    10. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    11. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
    12. Dr. Samuel Reynard, 2006. "Money and the Great Disinflation," Working Papers 2006-07, Swiss National Bank.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    14. D. Levy, 2002. "Cointegration in frequency domain," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 333-339, May.
    15. ., 2008. "Population Aging, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy," Chapters, in: Dirk Broeders & Sylvester Eiffinger & Aerdt Houben (ed.), Frontiers in Pension Finance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Arango, Sebastian & Ishaq Nadiri, M., 1981. "Demand for money in open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 69-83.
    17. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1441-1471, July.
    18. Miles, Marc A, 1978. "Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Monetary Independence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 428-436, June.
    19. Maurizio Bussolo & María Soledad Martínez Peria & César Calderón & Yira Mascaró & Mette E. Nielsen & Pablo Acosta & J. Humberto López & Çaglar Özden & Yoko Niimi & Luis Molina & Florencia Moizeszowicz, 2008. "Remittances and Development: Lessons from Latin America," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 59678 edited by J. Humberto López & Pablo Fajnzylber, February.
    20. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    21. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 221-253, March.
    22. Ortiz, Guillermo, 1983. "Currency Substitution in Mexico: The Dollarization Problem," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 174-185, May.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    24. Helene Rey, 2013. "Dilemma not trilemma: the global cycle and monetary policy independence," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2.
    25. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    26. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
    27. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "The Demand for Money," Springer Books, Springer, edition 0, number 978-0-387-71727-2, December.
    28. By May Khamis & Alfredo M. Leone, 2001. "Can Currency Demand Be Stable Under a Financial Crisis? The Case of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 1-6.
    29. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    30. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2009. "Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting," Staff Working Papers 09-35, Bank of Canada.
    31. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos‐Francia, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 349-362, July.
    32. Rogers, John H, 1992. "The Currency Substitution Hypothesis and Relative Money Demand in Mexico and Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 300-318, August.
    33. Cuthbertson, Keith & Galindo, Luis, 1999. "The Demand for Money in Mexico," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(2), pages 154-166, March.
    34. Castle, Jennifer & Shephard, Neil (ed.), 2009. "The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics: A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199237197.
    35. repec:idb:brikps:59678 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Raymond Chi Wing Ng, 2002. "Long-Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(2), pages 147-155, August.
    37. Miriam Chau RodrIGuez & Paul Turner, 2003. "Currency substitution and the demand for money in Mexico," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 59-62.
    38. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2015. "Money Demand Estimations in Mexico and of its Stability 1986-2010, as well as Some Examples of its Uses," Working Papers 2015-13, Banco de México.
    2. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    4. Adnan Haider & Asad Jan & Kalim Hyder, 2013. "On the (Ir)Relevance of Monetary Aggregate Targeting in Pakistan: An Eclectic View," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 65-119, July-Dec.
    5. João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
    7. Hilde Bjørnland, 2005. "A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: the case of Venezuela," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 375-385.
    8. Barthélemy, Jean & Clerc, Laurent & Marx, Magali, 2011. "A two-pillar DSGE monetary policy model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1303-1316, May.
    9. Mcgibany, James M. & Nourzad, Farrokh, 1995. "Exchange rate volatility and the demand for money in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 411-425.
    10. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2016. "On the Empirical Relevance of the Lucas Critique: the Case of Euro Area Money Demand," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 43(1), pages 61-82.
    11. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.
    13. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Money growth, output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency: Spectral estimates for Switzerland," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-435, February.
    14. Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2016. "On the sources of macroeconomic stability in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 40-63.
    15. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2012. "Money, Output, And Inflation In The Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 773-787, July.
    16. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2014. "Redundancy Or Mismeasurement? A Reappraisal Of Money," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(7), pages 1437-1465, October.
    17. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    18. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016. "Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1223-1266, September.
    19. Akhand Hossain, 2012. "Modelling of narrow money demand in Australia: an ARDL cointegration approach, 1970–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 767-790, June.
    20. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1441-1471, July.
    21. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti, 2018. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(4), pages 755-787, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; inflation; money gap; autoregressive distributed lag model; cointegration; general-to-specific; stability/structural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2015-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Subgerencia de desarrollo de sistemas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bangvmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.