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Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression

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  • Kevin D. Hoover
  • Soren Johansen
  • Katarina Juselius

Abstract

An explication of the key ideas behind the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach. The CVAR approach is related to Haavelmo’s famous “Probability Approach in Econometrics” (1944). It insists on careful stochastic specification as a necessary groundwork for econometric inference and the testing of economic theories. In time-series data, the probability approach requires careful specification of the integration and cointegration properties of variables in systems of equations. The relationship between the CVAR approach and wider methodological issues and between it and related approaches (e.g., the LSE approach) are explored. The specific-to-general strategy of widening the scope of econometric models to identify stochastic trends and cointegrating relations and to nest theoretical economic models is illustrated with the example of purchasing-power parity

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.98.2.251
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 98 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 251-55

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:98:y:2008:i:2:p:251-55

Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.2.251
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  1. Franchi, Massimo & Jusélius, Katarina, 2007. "Taking a DSGE Model to the Data Meaningfully," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 1(4), pages 1-38.
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Cited by:
  1. Ordóñez, Javier & Jusélius, Katarina, 2009. "Balassa-Samuelson and Wage, Price and Unemployment Dynamics in the Spanish Transition to EMU Membership," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(4), pages 1-30.
  2. Pierre Lafourcade & Joris de Wind, 2012. "Taking Trends Seriously in DSGE Models: An Application to the Dutch Economy," DNB Working Papers 345, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Møller, Niels Framroze, 2008. "Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Spanos, Aris, 2009. "The Pre-Eminence of Theory versus the European CVAR Perspective in Macroeconometric Modeling," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(10), pages 1-14.
  5. David Colander & Hans Föllmer & Armin Haas & Michael Goldberg & Katarina Juselius & Alan Kirman & Thomas Lux & Birgitte Sloth, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics," Discussion Papers 09-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  6. David Colander, 2009. "Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0912, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
  7. Roger E. Backhouse & Steven N. Durlauf, 2009. "Robbins on Economic Generalizations and Reality in the Light of Modern Econometrics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(s1), pages 873-890, October.
  8. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2011. "On the role of small models in macrodynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1605-1613, September.
  9. Kevin Hoover & Katarina Juselius, 2012. "Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis: Trygve Haavelmo and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 12-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  10. Giuliana Passamani, 2008. "The process of convergence towards the euro for the Visegrad-4 countries," Department of Economics Working Papers 0825, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  11. Boldyrev, I., 2011. "Economic Methodology Today: a Review of Major Contributions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 9, pages 47-70.
  12. Lightwood, James & Glantz, Stanton A., 2011. "Predicted Effect of California Tobacco Control Funding on Smoking Prevalence, Cigarette Consumption, and Healthcare Costs, 2012-2016," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt6j03515p, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
  13. Corrado Macchiarelli, 2011. "Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the equilibrium real exchange rate," Working Paper Series 1405, European Central Bank.
  14. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2008. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  15. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
  16. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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