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Malthus in Cointegration Space: A new look at living standards and population in pre-industrial England

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Author Info
Niels Framroze Møller (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
Paul Sharp (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

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Abstract

We analyze Malthus' (1798) model when labor demand shifts persistently. The Malthusian ideas are formalized and derived in terms of stationarity and cointegration, and the implied restrictions are tested against English pre-industrial data 1560-1760. The evidence suggests a negligible marginal productivity effect of population on real income, implying that the Malthusian "check" relations should be analyzed as cointegrating relations. The data support highly significant preventive checks working via marriages, but weak (in-significant) positive checks. These results are remarkably clear-cut. We suggest a simple interpretation for the lack of response of real income to population, which is consistent with positive feed back effects from population on technology, à la Boserupian- and/or Smithian mechanisms. Recursive estimation confirms stable parameters and identify the end of our modified Malthusian regime.

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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 08-16.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0816

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Related research
Keywords: cointegrated VAR; unit root econometrics; Malthus; Malthusian model; pre-industrial England;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Income, and Wealth
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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  2. Aiyar, Shekhar & Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Moav, Omer, 2006. "Technological Progress and Regress in Pre-Industrial Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 5454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Anderson & Ronald Lee, 2002. "Malthus in state space: Macro economic-demographic relations in English history, 1540 to 1870," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 195-220. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "From Malthus to Solow: How did the Malthusian economy really evolve?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 68-93, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gregory Clark, 2005. "The Condition of the Working Class in England, 1209-2004," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1307-1340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lee Ronald, 1993. "Accidental and Systematic Change in Population History: Homeostasis in a Stochastic Setting," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Allen, Robert C., 2001. "The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 411-447, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Paul Sharp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2007. "From Preventive to Permissive Checks: The changing nature of the Malthusian relationship between nuptiality and the price of provisions in the nineteenth century," Discussion Papers 07-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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