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Economists, incentives, judgment, and the European CVAR approach to macroeconometrics

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Author Info
Colander, David C.
Abstract

This paper argues that the DSGE approach to macroeconometrics is the dominant approach because it meets the institutional needs of the replicator dynamics of the profession, not because it is necessarily the best way to do macroeconometrics. It further argues that this ?DSGE theory-first? approach is inconsistent with the historical approach that economists have advocated in the past and that the alternative European CVAR approach is much more consistent with economist's historically used methodology, correctly understood. However, because the European CVAR approach requires explicit researcher judgment, it does not do well in the replicator dynamics of the profession. The paper concludes with the suggestion that there should be an increase in dialog between the two approaches.

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Article provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its journal Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.

Volume (Year): 3 (2009)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
Pages: 1-21
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:7595

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Related research
Keywords: Methodology; macroeconometrics; general to specific; DSGE; VAR; judgment; incentives;

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  1. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-66, January. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2006. "Modern macroeconomics in practice: how theory is shaping policy," Staff Report 376, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1981. "Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 825-44, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kevin D. Hoover & Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 251-55, May. [Downloadable!]
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  7. David Colander & Peter Howitt & Alan Kirman & Axel Leijonhufvud & Perry Mehrling, 2008. "Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 236-40, May. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. " The Scientific Illusion in Empirical Macroeconomics," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 93(2), pages 129-48.
  9. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.

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