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Conditioning In Dynamic Models

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  • J.‐P. Florens
  • M. Mouchart

Abstract

. A statistical model is generally defined through a probability on some variables conditionally on other variables and refers to some parameters of interest. Therefore, it seems natural to ask under which conditions such a model does not lose information with respect to a model describing more variables and implying more parameters. Admissibility conditions for reductions by conditioning are investigated both in one‐shot and in dynamic models. By so doing, concepts of ‘exogeneity’ and of ‘non‐causality’ are integrated into a general framework. This paper is essentially a non‐technical introduction to the theory of reduction developed more formally in other papers. It also supplies various examples of the concepts introduced in that theory.

Suggested Citation

  • J.‐P. Florens & M. Mouchart, 1985. "Conditioning In Dynamic Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 15-34, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:6:y:1985:i:1:p:15-34
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1985.tb00395.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Koop, Gary & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1995. "Bayesian long-run prediction in time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 61-80, September.
    2. Mouchart, Michel & Russo, Federica & Wunsch, Guillaume, 2011. "Inferring causal relations by modelling structures : Article de recherche," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    3. Woźniak, Tomasz, 2015. "Testing causality between two vectors in multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 876-894.
    4. Wunsch, Guillaume & Mouchart, Michel & Russo, Federica, 2012. "Functions and mechanisms in structural-modelling explanation," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2012031, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    5. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    6. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    7. Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1993. "Bayesian marginal equivalence of elliptical regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 391-403, October.
    8. Michel Mouchart & Renzo Orsi, 2016. "Building a Structural Model: Parameterization and Structurality," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-16, April.
    9. Jacek Osiewalski & Mateusz Pipien, 2004. "Bayesian Comparison of Bivariate GARCH Processes in the Presence of an Exogenous Variable," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 6, pages 25-36.
    10. Osiewalski, J. & Steel, M.F.J., 1989. "A Bayesian analysis of exogeneity in models pooling time-series and cross-section data," Discussion Paper 1989-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Genaro Sucarrat, 2010. "Econometric reduction theory and philosophy," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 53-75.
    12. Genaro, SUCARRAT, 2006. "The First Stage in Hendry’s Reduction Theory Revisited," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006041, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    13. Feve, Frederique & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2012. "Estimation of conditional ranks and tests of exogeneity in nonparametric nonseparable models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2012036, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    14. Anna Pajor, 2011. "A Bayesian Analysis of Exogeneity in Models with Latent Variables," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(2), pages 49-73, June.
    15. Nicoletti, Cheti, 2006. "Nonresponse in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 461-489, June.
    16. Jacek Osiewalski & Justyna Wróblewska & Kamil Makieła, 2020. "Bayesian comparison of production function-based and time-series GDP models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1355-1380, March.
    17. WUNSCH, Guillaume & MOUCHART, Michel & RUSSO, Federica, 2012. "Functions and mechanisms in structural-modelling explanations," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012056, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    18. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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