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The Source of Fluctuations in Money: Evidence From Trade Credit

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  • Valerie A. Ramey

Abstract

This paper tests the importance of technology shocks versus financial shocks for explaining, fluctuations in money. The model presented extends the theory of King and Plosser by recognizing that both money and trade credit provide transactions services. The model shows that the comovements between money and trade credit can reveal the nature of the underlying shocks. The empirical results strongly suggest that shocks to the financial system account for most of the fluctuations in money. Thus, the results cast doubt on the hypothesis that nonfinancial technology shocks are the main source of the money-income correlation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3756.

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Date of creation: Jun 1991
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Publication status: published as Journal of Monetary Economics, 30, November 1992,: 171-193
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3756

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  1. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert B. Litterman & Laurence Weiss, 1983. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 1077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ferris, J Stephen, 1981. "A Transactions Theory of Trade Credit Use," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 243-70, May.
  4. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Andrew Weiss, 1984. "Informational Imperfections in the Capital Market and Macro-Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 1335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1988. "Tests of the relation between money and output in the real business cycle model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 355-374.
  6. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  7. Otto Eckstein & Allen Sinai, 1986. "The Mechanisms of the Business Cycle in the Postwar Era," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 39-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Besley, Scott & Osteryoung, Jerome S, 1985. "Survey of Current Practices in Establishing Trade-Credit Limits," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 70-82, February.
  9. Lacker, Jeffrey M., 1990. "Inside money and real output: A reinterpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 65-79.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 1986. "On "Real" and "Sticky-Price" Theories of the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 1933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  12. Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Money and business cycles: a real business cycle interpretation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Milbourne, Ross D, 1983. "Credit Flows and the Money Supply," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(41), pages 418-30, December.
  14. Nadiri, M Ishaq, 1969. "The Determinants of Trade Credit in the U.S. Total Manufacturing Sector," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 408-23, July.
  15. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  16. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  17. John H. Cochrane, 1990. "Univariate vs. Multivariate Forecasts of GNP Growth and Stock Returns: Evidence and Implications for the Persistence of Shocks, Detrending Methods," NBER Working Papers 3427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Engle, R.F. & Yoo, B.S., 1989. "Cointegrated Economic Time Series: A Survey With New Results," Papers 8-89-13, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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