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The Source of Fluctuations in Money: Evidence From Trade Credit

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Valerie A. Ramey

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Abstract

This paper tests the importance of technology shocks versus financial shocks for explaining, fluctuations in money. The model presented extends the theory of King and Plosser by recognizing that both money and trade credit provide transactions services. The model shows that the comovements between money and trade credit can reveal the nature of the underlying shocks. The empirical results strongly suggest that shocks to the financial system account for most of the fluctuations in money. Thus, the results cast doubt on the hypothesis that nonfinancial technology shocks are the main source of the money-income correlation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3756.

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Date of creation: Jun 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3756

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ferris, J Stephen, 1981. "A Transactions Theory of Trade Credit Use," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 243-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engle, R.F. & Yoo, B.S., 1989. "Cointegrated Economic Time Series: A Survey With New Results," Papers 8-89-13, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  5. Otto Eckstein & Allen Sinai, 1986. "The Mechanisms of the Business Cycle in the Postwar Era," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 39-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1984. "Informational Imperfections in the Capital Market and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 194-99, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Money and business cycles: a real business cycle interpretation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  9. Lacker, Jeffrey M., 1990. "Inside money and real output: A reinterpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 65-79. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "On "Real" and "Sticky-Price" Theories of the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 1933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Univariate vs. Multivariate Forecasts of GNP Growth and Stock Returns: Evidence and Implications for the Persistence of Shocks, Detrending Methods," NBER Working Papers 3427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Nadiri, M Ishaq, 1969. "The Determinants of Trade Credit in the U.S. Total Manufacturing Sector," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 408-23, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Milbourne, Ross D, 1983. "Credit Flows and the Money Supply," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(41), pages 418-30, December.
  15. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1988. "Tests of the relation between money and output in the real business cycle model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 355-374. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Besley, Scott & Osteryoung, Jerome S, 1985. "Survey of Current Practices in Establishing Trade-Credit Limits," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 70-82, February.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Valerie A. Ramey, 1993. "How Important is the Credit Channel in the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 4285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hirofumi Uchida & Gregory F. Udell & Wako Watanabe, 2006. "Are Trade Creditors Relationship Lenders?," Discussion papers 06026, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Eugenio Gaiotti & Alessandro Secchi, 2004. "Is there a cost channel of monetary policy transmission? An investigation into the pricing behavior of 2,000 firms," Macroeconomics 0412010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kenshi Taketa & Gregory F. Udell, 2007. "Lending Channels and Financial Shocks: The Case of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Trade Credit and the Japanese Banking Crisis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 1-44, November. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1991. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," NBER Working Papers 3892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung & Pierre Siklos, 1993. "The Common Development of Institutional Change as Measured by Income Velocity: A Century of Evidence from Industrialized Countries," NBER Working Papers 4379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Pirttilä, Jukka & Rautava, Jouko, 2001. "Money, Barter and Inflation in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Gregory E. Elliehausen & John D. Wolken, 1993. "The demand for trade credit: an investigation of motives for trade credit use by small businesses," Staff Studies 165, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Ono, Masanori, 2009. "Trading companies as financial intermediaries in Japan," MPRA Paper 17331, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Santiago Carbó Valverde & Francisco Rodríguez-Fernández & Gregory F. Udell, 2008. "Bank lending, financing constraints and SME investment," Working Paper Series WP-08-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  11. Yungsan Kim & Woon Gyu Choi, 2003. "Trade Credit and the Effect of Macro-Financial Shocks: Evidence from U.S. Panel Data," IMF Working Papers 03/127, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Evidence from the Flow of Funds," NBER Working Papers 4699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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