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A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884?1940

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Author Info
Miron, Jeffrey A.
Romer, Christina D.

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Abstract

The article derives a new monthly index of industrial production for the United States for 1884 to 1940. This index improves upon existing measures of industrial production by excluding indirect proxies for industrial activity, using only component series that are consistent over time, and not making ad hoc adjustments to the data. Analysis of the new index shows that it has more within-year volatility than conventional indexes, has relatively unimportant seasonal fluctuations, and has cyclical turning points that are grossly similar to but subtly different from existing series.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0022050700036469
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal The Journal of Economic History.

Volume (Year): 50 (1990)
Issue (Month): 02 (June)
Pages: 321-337
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Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:50:y:1990:i:02:p:321-337_03

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Victor Zarnowitz, 1987. "The Regularity of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "Should The Fed Smooth Interest Rates? The Case of Seasonal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Peter Rappoport & Eugene N. White, 1991. "Was there a bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," NBER Working Papers 3612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/28, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.

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