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Information-aggregation bias

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  • Marvin Goodfriend

Abstract

Aggregation in the presence of data processing lags distorts the information content of data, violating orthogonality restrictions that hold at the individual level. Though the phenomenon is general, it is illustrated here for the life cycle-permanent model. Cross-section and pooled-panel data induce information-aggregation bias akin to that in aggregate time series. Calculations show that information-aggregation can seriously bias tests of the life cycle model on aggregate time series, cross-section, and pooled-panel data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 91-06.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:91-06

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Related research

Keywords: Consumption (Economics) ; Time-series analysis;

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  1. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1991. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Fumio Hayashi, 1984. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis and Consumption Durability: Analysis Based on Japanese Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 1305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1985. "Trends, random walks, and tests of the permanent income hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 165-174, September.
  5. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1987. "Is Consumption Too Smooth?," NBER Working Papers 2134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  8. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-46, April.
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  10. Robert B. Barsky & N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1987. "Ricardian Consumers With Keynesian Propensities," NBER Working Papers 1400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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