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Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output

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Author Info

  • Carpenter, Robert E
  • Levy, Daniel

Abstract

The importance of inventory investment in the business cycle is well-known. Its role in the seasonal cycle is less well known. The authors examine the variation of inventory investment and its comovement with output over the seasonal and business cycles. They measure the deterministic and stochastic seasonal components of monthly inventory data and find seasonality contributes about 75 percent of the total variance, similar to the proportion found in GDP. The authors find that inventory investment and output exhibit high correlation, with similar magnitudes, at seasonal and business cycle frequencies. These findings are consistent with the idea that seasonal cycles and business cycles are propagated through similar mechanisms and suggest that inventory investment may play as important a role in the seasonal cycle as it does in the business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 30 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 331-46

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:30:y:1998:i:3:p:331-46

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Matas-Mir, Antonio & Osborn, Denise R., 2004. "Does seasonality change over the business cycle? An investigation using monthly industrial production series," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1309-1332, December.
  2. Daniel Levy & Georg Müller & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Mark Bergen & Shantanu Dutta, 2009. "Holiday Price Rigidity and Cost of Price Adjustment," Working Papers 2009-03, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
  3. van Dijk, Dick & Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2001. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0429, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 16 May 2002.
  4. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2003. "The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 38, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  5. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
  6. Humphreys, Brad R., 2001. "The behavior of manufacturers inventories: Evidence from US industry level data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 9-20, May.
  7. Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2002. "On the Typical Spectral Shape of an Economic Variable," Working Papers 2002-16, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
  8. Guido de Blasio & Federico Mini, 2001. "Seasonality and Capacity: an Application to Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 403, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Donald S. Allen, 1999. "Seasonal production smoothing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 21-40.
  10. Donald S. Allen, 1999. "Seasonal production smoothing," Working Papers 1999-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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