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Los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en Perú

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  • Castillo, Paul
  • Pérez, Fernando
  • Tuesta, Vicente

Abstract

Se extiende el modelo propuesto por Bernanke yMihov (1998) para el caso de una economía parcialmente dolarizada para estimar los efectos de la política monetaria en el Perú entre 1995 y 2009. Los resultados indican que la política monetaria en el Perú, a pesar de ser esta una economía parcialmente dolarizada, tiene efectos similares a los que predice la teoría económica en economías sin dolarización. En particular, ante un choque contractivo de política monetaria las tasas de interés suben, los agregados monetarios se contraen, la moneda local se aprecia, la demanda agregada se desacelera y finalmente la inflación cae. Sin embargo, los choques cambiarios resultan ser un importante determinante del mercado monetario. Finalmente, los resultados muestran que el Banco Central responde con mayor intensidad a choques de demanda por dinero que a choques cambiarios durante el periodo posterior a la adopción de metas explicitas de inflación.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 21 ()
Pages: 41-63

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-21-03

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References

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  3. Barrera Chaupis, Carlos, 2000. "Mecanismos de transmisión y reglas de política monetaria: la posición de la política monetaria como variable de estado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 6.
  4. Diego Winkelried Quezada, 2005. "Tendencias comunes y análisis de la política monetaria en el Perú," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 279-317, julio-sep.
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  7. Winkelried, Diego, 2003. "¿Es asimétrico el pass-through en el Perú?: Un análisis agregado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 10.
  8. Leonardo Leiderman & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Inflation Targeting in Dollarized Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/157, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Quispe Misaico, Zenon, 2000. "Monetary policy in a dollarised economy: The case of Peru," MPRA Paper 35530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Giorgio Di Giorgio & Salvatore Nistico, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Stock Prices in an Open Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1947-1985, December.
  11. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
  12. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  13. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  14. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
  15. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Lahura, Erick, 2010. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks In Peru: Semi-Structural Identification Using A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 2010-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
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Cited by:
  1. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Midiendo los efectos de la política monetaria a través de las expectativas de mercado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 39-52.
  2. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy Using Market Expectations," Working Papers 2012-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  3. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.

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