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Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market

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  • Aktas, Zelal
  • Kaya, Neslihan
  • Özlale, Ümit
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    Abstract

    Several studies including Blanchard (2004) and Favero and Giavazzi (2004) imply that in emerging market economies, a tight monetary policy within an inflation-targeting framework could actually increase the price level due to the lack of fiscal discipline and the associated high risk premium. We extend their arguments in two ways. First, we introduce a semi structural model with time-varying parameters, where the risk premium is 'unobserved' and it is derived within the system. Such an approach fits better with the volatile nature of emerging market economies by allowing us to track down the time-varying effects of macroeconomic dynamics on both the model-consistent risk premium and the other key variables. Second, we obtain impulse response functions and analyze the implications of a tight monetary policy on major macroeconomic variables. Taking the Turkish economy as our reference point, we find that the arguments of Blanchard (2004) and Favero and Giavazzi (2004) seem to be valid.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 123-138

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:1:p:123-138

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

    Related research

    Keywords: Monetary policy Non-linear state space models Extended Kalman filter;

    References

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    1. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International financial adjustment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Rudebusch, G. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," Papers, Stockholm - International Economic Studies 672, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    3. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    5. Hakan Kara & Hande Küçük-Tuger & Ümit Özlale & Burç Tuger & Eray M. Yücel, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Pass-Through: Evidence From The Turkish Economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(2), pages 206-225, 04.
    6. Paul R. Bergin, 2004. "How Well Can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics Explain the Exchange Rate and Current Account?," NBER Working Papers 10356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 4376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings," NBER Working Papers 8738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc & Umit Ozlale & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 269-289, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Çebi, Cem, 2012. "The interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Turkey: An estimated New Keynesian DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1258-1267.
    2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Kadria, Mohamed & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Public Deficit in Emerging Countries: A Time Varying Treatment Effect Approach," MPRA Paper 57442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Cem Cebi, 2011. "The Interaction between Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Turkey: An Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model (Yeni Keynesyen Dinamik Stokastik Genel Denge Modeli Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Para ve Maliye Politi," Working Papers 1104, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Lucotte, Yannick, 2012. "Adoption of inflation targeting and tax revenue performance in emerging market economies: An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 609-628.
    6. Muhanji, Stella & Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2013. "Price and liquidity puzzles of a monetary shock: Evidence from indebted African economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 620-630.

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