IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v36y2012i4p609-628.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adoption of inflation targeting and tax revenue performance in emerging market economies: An empirical investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Lucotte, Yannick

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the adoption of inflation targeting (IT), by strengthening central bank independence and maintaining inflation at low levels, has encouraged the governments of emerging economies to improve the collection of domestic tax revenue in order to recoup the loss of seigniorage revenue. Using the propensity score matching methodology, a micro-econometric methodology recently used in macroeconomics, we evaluate the ‘treatment effect’ of IT on fiscal mobilization in emerging countries that have adopted this monetary policy framework. Our empirical analysis, conducted on a sample of 59 countries (19 IT and 40 non-IT countries) for the period from 1980 to 2009, shows that on average IT adoption has had a large and significant positive effect on public revenue collection. Our results are confirmed by extensive robustness tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucotte, Yannick, 2012. "Adoption of inflation targeting and tax revenue performance in emerging market economies: An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 609-628.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:36:y:2012:i:4:p:609-628
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.01.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362512000477
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.01.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "Does right or left matter? Cabinets, credibility and fiscal adjustments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 2447-2468, December.
    3. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Jakob De Haan & Jan Egbert Sturm, 1992. "The Case for Central Bank Independence," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 45(182), pages 305-327.
    5. Yannick Lucotte, 2009. "Central Bank Independence and Budget Deficits in Developing Countries: New Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Post-Print halshs-00447398, HAL.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    7. Helder Ferreira de Mendonca & Rubens Teixeira da Silva, 2009. "Fiscal effect from inflation targeting: the Brazilian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 885-897.
    8. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Which provides more fiscal discipline?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 399-436, April.
    9. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    10. Y V Reddy, 2002. "Issues and challenges in the development of the debt market in India," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 117-126, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Rose, Andrew & Fatás, Antonio, 2001. "Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 2692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Helene Ehrhart, 2012. "Assessing the relationship between democracy and domestic taxes in developing countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 551-566.
    14. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    15. Amato, Jeffery D. & Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Inflation targeting in emerging market and transition economies: Lessons after a decade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 781-790, May.
    16. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Richard C. K. Burdekin & Leroy O. Laney, 1988. "Fiscal Policymaking and the Central Bank Institutional Constraint," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 647-662, November.
    18. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2010. "What Drives Inflation in the World?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 345-380.
    20. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    21. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "Money-Based Versus Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization with Endogenous Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 95-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    22. Jon Faust & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Is inflation targeting best-practice monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jul), pages 117-144.
    23. Nicoletta Batini & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experience of Emerging Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 12, pages 467-506, Central Bank of Chile.
    24. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    25. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    26. Michael Reddell, 1999. "Origins and early development of the inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September.
    27. Joyce, Joseph P. & Nabar, Malhar, 2009. "Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 314-322, November.
    28. Yifan Hu, 2006. "The choice of inflation targeting—an empirical investigation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 27-42, April.
    29. Hanna Samaryna & Jakob de Haan, 2011. "Right on Target: Exploring the Determinants of Inflation Targeting Adoption," DNB Working Papers 321, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    30. Huang, Haizhou & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2006. "Monetary policies for developing countries: The role of institutional quality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 239-252, September.
    31. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 2010/245, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2000. "Understanding the fiscal theory of the price level," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-38.
    33. Khattry, Barsha & Mohan Rao, J., 2002. "Fiscal Faux Pas?: An Analysis of the Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1431-1444, August.
    34. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097, Elsevier.
    35. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1998. "Fiscal discipline and the choice of a nominal anchor in stabilization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 1-30, October.
    36. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    37. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    38. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
    39. Murray Sherwin, 1999. "Strategic choices in inflation targeting: the New Zealand experience," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, June.
    40. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    41. Mukherjee, Bumba & Singer, David Andrew, 2008. "Monetary Institutions, Partisanship, and Inflation Targeting," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 323-358, April.
    42. Cochrane, John H, 2001. "Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 69-116, January.
    43. Christopher Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2007. "The Evolution of Central Bank Governance around the World," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 69-90, Fall.
    44. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Does high inflation cause central bankers to lose their job? Evidence based on a new data set," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 778-787, December.
    45. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    46. Burdekin, Richard C K & Laney, Leroy O, 1988. "Fiscal Policymaking and the Central Bank Institutional Constraint," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 647-662.
    47. Ms. Francesca Castellani & Mr. Xavier Debrun, 2001. "Central Bank Independence and the Design of Fiscal Institutions," IMF Working Papers 2001/205, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Shahidur R. Khandker & Gayatri B. Koolwal & Hussain A. Samad, . "Handbook on Impact Evaluation : Quantitative Methods and Practices," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2693, September.
    49. Edwin M. Truman, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 346.
    50. Woo, Jaejoon, 2003. "Economic, political, and institutional determinants of public deficits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3-4), pages 387-426, March.
    51. Paul R. Masson & Miguel A. Savastano & Sunil Sharma, 2019. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 10, pages 331-383, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    52. M S Mohanty, 2002. "Improving liquidity in government bond markets: what can be done?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 49-80, Bank for International Settlements.
    53. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    54. Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
    55. Donato Masciandaro & Guido Tabellini, 1987. "Monetary regimes and fiscal deficits: a comparative analysis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 125-152.
    56. Gerlach, Stefan, 1999. "Who targets inflation explicitly?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1257-1277, June.
    57. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra Todd, 1998. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(2), pages 261-294.
    58. Cukierman, Alex & Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 537-555, June.
    59. Mr. Mark Zelmer & Ms. Andrea Schaechter & Mr. Mark R. Stone & Ms. Alina Carare, 2002. "Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 2002/102, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucotte, Yannick, 2010. "Adoption of inflation targeting and tax revenue performance in emerging market economies: An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 23871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yannick Lucotte, 2010. "Adoption of inflation targeting and tax revenue performance in emerging market economies: An empirical investigation," Post-Print halshs-00505140, HAL.
    3. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.
    4. Kadria, Mohamed & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2016. "Inflation targeting and public deficit in emerging countries: A time varying treatment effect approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 108-114.
    5. Soe, Than Than & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Inflation targeting and income velocity in developing economies: Some international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-61.
    6. Lucotte, Yannick, 2010. "The choice of adopting inflation targeting in emerging economies: Do domestic institutions matter?," MPRA Paper 27118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yannick LUCOTTE, 2010. "The Choice of Adopting Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: Do Domestic Institutions Matter?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1561, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Atsuyoshi Morozumi & Michael Bleaney & Zakari Mumuni, 2020. "Inflation targeting in low‐income countries: Does IT work?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 1529-1550, November.
    9. Hippolyte W. Balima & Eric G. Kilama & Rene Tapsoba, 2017. "Settling the Inflation Targeting Debate: Lights from a Meta-Regression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2017/213, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Tadadjeu Wemba, Dessy-Karl & Essiane, Patrick-Nelson Daniel, 2018. "Autonomie des Banques Centrales et Finances Publiques en Afrique subsaharienne [Autonomy of Central Banks and Public Finances in Sub-saharan Africa]," MPRA Paper 100828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Anna Samarina & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Right On Target: Exploring The Factors Leading To Inflation Targeting Adoption," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 372-389, April.
    12. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    13. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    15. Alexandru Minea & René Tapsoba & Patrick Villieu, 2021. "Inflation targeting adoption and institutional quality: Evidence from developing countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2107-2127, July.
    16. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    17. Balima, Hippolyte W. & Kilama, Eric G. & Tapsoba, René, 2020. "Inflation targeting: Genuine effects or publication selection bias?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    18. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2023. "Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2019. "Adopting inflation targeting in emerging markets: exploring the factors behind the decision," MPRA Paper 115797, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jun 2020.
    20. Alpanda, Sami & Honig, Adam, 2014. "The impact of central bank independence on the performance of inflation targeting regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 118-135.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Public revenue; Treatment effect; Propensity score matching; Emerging countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:36:y:2012:i:4:p:609-628. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.