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What Drives Inflation in the World?

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Author Info
César Calderón
Klaus Schmidt Hebbel

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of non-monetary factors on inflation for a sample of 97 countries over the period 1975-2005. We complement and extend the existing literature in the following dimensions: (i) we assemble a comprehensive set of inflation determinants classified in 5 groups — high inflation and persistence, monetary and exchange rate regimes, openness, structural variables and institutions, and business-cycle-related variables. (ii) We estimate broad specification using alternative econometric techniques and frequencies of data (e.g. annual and 5-year-averages) to assess separately for short -term and long-term inflation dynamics. (iii) We test the sensitivity of our results to different country groups and over time. Our findings mainly show that: (a) discipline and credibility enhancing effects are crucial in lowering inflation. We find that countries that adopted either inflation targeting or fixed exchange rate regimes attain lower inflation rates. Financial openness and healthy fiscal balances also exerted a disciplinary effect on inflation in the short run. (b) Countries with higher income per capita have lower inflation rates. (c) Interestingly, domestic output gap has a positive effect that is higher in industrial countries than in developing ones. (d) We fail to find a significant effect of globalization —as proxied by the foreign output gap— on domestic inflation.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 491.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:491

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  1. Cristina T. Terra, 1998. "Openness And Inflation: A New Assessment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 641-648, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Oscar Landerretche & Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 106, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1984. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. William C. Gruben & Darryl McLeod, 2003. "The openness-inflation puzzle revisited," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32. [Downloadable!]
  12. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
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