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Globalization and inflation dynamics: the impact of increased competition

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Author Info
Argia M. Sbordone

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the potential effect of global market competition on inflation dynamics. It does so through the lens of the Calvo model of staggered price setting, which implies that inflation depends on expected future inflation and a measure of marginal costs. I modify the assumption of a constant elasticity of demand, standard in this model, to provide a channel through which an increase in the number of traded goods may affect the degree of strategic complementarity in price setting and hence alter the dynamic response of inflation to marginal costs. I first discuss the behavior of the variables that drive the impact of trade openness on this response, and then I evaluate whether an increase in the variety of traded goods of the magnitude observed in the United States in the 1990s might have a significant quantitative impact. I find that it is difficult to argue that such an increase in trade would have generated a sufficiently large increase in U.S. market competition to reduce the slope of the inflation-marginal cost relation.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 324.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:324

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Related research
Keywords: Price levels ; Inflation (Finance) ; Deflation (Finance) ; Competition;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305. [Downloadable!]
  3. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1996. "Taste for variety and optimum production patterns in monopolistic competition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 41-47, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cogley, Timothy W. & Sbordone, Argia M., 2005. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Working Papers 05-10, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Bakhshi, Hasan & Khan, Hashmat & Burriel-Llombart, Pablo & Rudolf, Barbara, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve under trend inflation and strategic complementarity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 37-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King, 2005. "Implications of state-dependent pricing for dynamic macroeconomic models," Working Papers 05-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112. [Downloadable!]
  8. Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D.M., 2007. "Estimating the frequency of price re-optimization in Calvo-style models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2032-2047, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing And The General Equilibrium Dynamics Of Money And Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Donald L. Kohn, 2006. "The effects of globalization on inflation and their implications for monetary policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-77, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Christopher Gust & Sylvain Leduc & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2006. "Trade integration, competition, and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 864, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 45-78. [Downloadable!]
  18. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2005. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 11393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Peter N. Ireland, 2005. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's inflation target: causes and consequences," Working Papers 05-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Florin Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2007. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 13646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Janet L. Yellen, 2006. "Monetary policy in a global environment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun 2. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sylvain Barde, 2008. "A Generalised Variable Elasticity of Substitution Model of New Economic Geography," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-33, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  2. Cetorelli, Nicola & Goldberg, Linda S., 2008. "Banking globalization, monetary transmission and the lending channel," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,21, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Joseph Daniels & David VanHoose, 2009. "Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 473-487, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics," Economics working papers 2008-17, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Has Globalization Transformed U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics?," Working Papers 091001, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Does Global Slack Matter More than Domestic Slack in Determining U.S. Inflation?," Working Papers 080910, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Fabio Milani, 2009. "The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation," Working Papers 080920, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Bertola, Giuseppe, 2008. "Labour Markets in EMU - What has Changed and What Needs to Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 7049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Pascal Jacquinot & Roland Straub, 2008. "Globalisation and the euro area - simulation based analysis using the New Area Wide Model," Working Paper Series 907, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joseph P. Daniels & David D. VanHoose, 2007. "Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Working Papers and Research 0701, Marquette University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Philippe Jeanfils, 2008. "Imperfect exchange rate pass-through : the role of distribution services and variable demand elasticity," Research series 200808-19, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

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