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Globalization and inflation dynamics: the impact of increased competition

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  • Argia M. Sbordone

Abstract

This paper analyzes the potential effect of global market competition on inflation dynamics. It does so through the lens of the Calvo model of staggered price setting, which implies that inflation depends on expected future inflation and a measure of marginal costs. I modify the assumption of a constant elasticity of demand, standard in this model, to provide a channel through which an increase in the number of traded goods may affect the degree of strategic complementarity in price setting and hence alter the dynamic response of inflation to marginal costs. I first discuss the behavior of the variables that drive the impact of trade openness on this response, and then I evaluate whether an increase in the variety of traded goods of the magnitude observed in the United States in the 1990s might have a significant quantitative impact. I find that it is difficult to argue that such an increase in trade would have generated a sufficiently large increase in U.S. market competition to reduce the slope of the inflation-marginal cost relation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 324.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:324

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Keywords: Price levels ; Inflation (Finance) ; Deflation (Finance) ; Competition;

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References

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  1. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Andrew T. Levin & J. David Lopez-Salido & Tack Yun, 2007. "Strategic Complementarities and Optimal Monetary Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1355, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
  4. Peter N. Ireland, 2005. "Changes in the Federal Reserve’s Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 607, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1996. "Taste for variety and optimum production patterns in monopolistic competition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 41-47, July.
  6. Cogley, Timothy W. & Sbordone, Argia M., 2005. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Working Papers 05-10, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics.
  7. Bakhshi, Hasan & Khan, Hashmat & Burriel-Llombart, Pablo & Rudolf, Barbara, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve under trend inflation and strategic complementarity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 37-59, March.
  8. David E. Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization And The Gains From Variety," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 327, Econometric Society.
  9. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304 - 345.
  10. Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D.M., 2007. "Estimating the frequency of price re-optimization in Calvo-style models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2032-2047, October.
  11. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing And The General Equilibrium Dynamics Of Money And Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690, May.
  12. Donald L. Kohn, 2006. "The effects of globalization on inflation and their implications for monetary policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  13. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-77, November.
  14. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 45-78.
  15. Sbordone, Argia, 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Seminar Papers 653, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  16. Assaf Razin & Chi-Wa Yuen, 2001. "The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve: Closed Economy vs. Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2005. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 11393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. repec:bla:restud:v:75:y:2008:i:1:p:295-316 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Janet L. Yellen, 2006. "Monetary policy in a global environment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun 2.
  20. Marc J. Melitz & Fabio Ghironi & Florin O. Bilbiie, 2007. "Monopoly Power and Endogenous Variety in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: Distortions and Remedies," 2007 Meeting Papers 772, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  22. Gust, Christopher & Leduc, Sylvain & Vigfusson, Robert, 2010. "Trade integration, competition, and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 309-324, April.
  23. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. repec:bla:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:3:p:707-734 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December.
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