IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/324.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Globalization and inflation dynamics: the impact of increased competition

Author

Abstract

This paper analyzes the potential effect of global market competition on inflation dynamics. It does so through the lens of the Calvo model of staggered price setting, which implies that inflation depends on expected future inflation and a measure of marginal costs. I modify the assumption of a constant elasticity of demand, standard in this model, to provide a channel through which an increase in the number of traded goods may affect the degree of strategic complementarity in price setting and hence alter the dynamic response of inflation to marginal costs. I first discuss the behavior of the variables that drive the impact of trade openness on this response, and then I evaluate whether an increase in the variety of traded goods of the magnitude observed in the United States in the 1990s might have a significant quantitative impact. I find that it is difficult to argue that such an increase in trade would have generated a sufficiently large increase in U.S. market competition to reduce the slope of the inflation-marginal cost relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Globalization and inflation dynamics: the impact of increased competition," Staff Reports 324, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:324
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr324.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr324.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690.
    2. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
    3. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
    4. Marc J. Melitz & Giancarlo I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 4, pages 87-108, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    6. Dotsey, Michael & King, Robert G., 2005. "Implications of state-dependent pricing for dynamic macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 213-242, January.
    7. Marc Melitz & Ghironi, Fabio & Florin Bilbiie, 2006. "Monopoly Power and Endogenous Variety in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: Distortions and Remedies," Working Paper 14401, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    8. Scott, Andrew & Imbs, Jean & Chen, Natalie, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    10. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
    12. Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2002. "The 'New Keynesian' Phillips curve: closed economy versus open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 1-9, March.
    13. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1996. "Taste for variety and optimum production patterns in monopolistic competition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 41-47, July.
    14. Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D.M., 2007. "Estimating the frequency of price re-optimization in Calvo-style models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2032-2047, October.
    15. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-1277, November.
    16. Levin, Andrew T. & López-Salido, José David & Yun, Tack, 2007. "Strategic Complementarities and Optimal Monetary Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1355, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2004. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 291, Society for Computational Economics.
    18. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December.
    20. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
    21. Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2004. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 291, Society for Computational Economics.
    22. Assaf Razin & Chi-Wa Yuen, 2001. "The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve: Closed Economy vs. Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Gust, Christopher & Leduc, Sylvain & Vigfusson, Robert, 2010. "Trade integration, competition, and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 309-324, April.
    25. Janet L. Yellen, 2006. "Monetary policy in a global environment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun2.
    26. Bakhshi, Hasan & Khan, Hashmat & Burriel-Llombart, Pablo & Rudolf, Barbara, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve under trend inflation and strategic complementarity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 37-59, March.
    27. Donald L. Kohn, 2006. "The effects of globalization on inflation and their implications for monetary policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bloch, Laurence, 2012. "Product market regulation, trend inflation and inflation dynamics in the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2058-2070.
    2. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    3. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    4. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust & J. David López-Salido, 2010. "International Competition and Inflation: A New Keynesian Perspective," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 247-280, October.
    5. Marzinotto, Benedicta, 2009. "Beyond monetary credibility: The impact of globalisation on the output-inflation trade-off in euro-area countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 162-176, August.
    6. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2011. "The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 317-337, April.
    7. Watson, Anna, 2016. "Trade openness and inflation: The role of real and nominal price rigidities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 137-169.
    8. Etro, Federico & Rossi, Lorenza, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy under Calvo pricing with Bertrand competition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 423-440.
    9. Levin, Andrew T. & David López-Salido, J. & Nelson, Edward & Yun, Tack, 2008. "Macroeconometric equivalence, microeconomic dissonance, and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 48-62, October.
    10. Pierpaolo Benigno & Ester Faia, 2016. "Globalization, Pass-Through, and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 263-306, December.
    11. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2022. "Macroeconomic changes with declining trend inflation: Complementarity with the superstar firm hypothesis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    12. Gbaguidi DAVID, 2011. "Expectations Impact On The Effectiveness Of The Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 141-181.
    13. Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 545-564, April.
    14. Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie, 2020. "Globalization, market structure and inflation dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    15. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
    16. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
    18. Chengsi Zhang, 2016. "How Has Globalisation Affected Inflation in China?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 301-313, February.
    19. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
    20. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2016. "Kinked Demand Curves, the Natural Rate Hypothesis, and Macroeconomic Stability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 240-257, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation (Finance); Price levels; Competition; Inflation (Finance);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.