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Inflation Dynamics

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Frederic S. Mishkin

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Abstract

This paper first outlines the key stylized facts about changes in inflation dynamics in recent years: (1) inflation persistence has declined, (2) the Phillips-curve has flattened and (3) inflation has become less responsive to other shocks. These changes in inflation dynamics are interpreted as resulting from an anchoring of inflation expectations as a result of better monetary policy. The paper then goes on to draw implications for monetary policy from this interpretation, as well as implications for inflation forecasts. Copyright No claim to original US government works. Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal International Finance.

Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 317-334
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Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:10:y:2007:i:3:p:317-334

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  1. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  2. Argia M. Sbordone, 2007. "Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: the Impact of Increased Competition," NBER Working Papers 13556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. David G. Blanchflower & Conall MacCoille, 2009. "The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK," NBER Working Papers 15388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barbara Meller & Dieter Nautz, 2009. "The Impact of the European Monetary Union on Inflation Persistence in the Euro Area," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bharat Trehan, 2009. "Survey measures of expected inflation and the inflation process," Working Paper Series 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alf Vanags & Morten Hansen, 2008. "Stagflation in Latvia: how long, how far, how deep?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 5-28, October. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Troy Davig, 2007. "Phillips curve instability and optimal monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 07-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  11. David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics," Economics working papers 2008-17, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 17-50. [Downloadable!]
  14. William C. Dudley & Jennifer Roush & Michelle Steinberg Ezer, 2009. "The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-17. [Downloadable!]
  15. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience," Discussion Papers 2008-06, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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