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Inflation Dynamics

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Author Info
Frederic S. Mishkin

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Abstract

This paper first outlines the key stylized facts about changes in inflation dynamics in recent years: 1) inflation persistence has declined, 2) the Phillips curve has flattened, and 3) inflation has become less responsive to other shocks. These changes in inflation dynamics are interpreted as resulting from an anchoring of inflation expectations as a result of better monetary policy. The paper then goes on to draw implications for monetary policy from this interpretation, as well as implications for inflation forecasts.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13147.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13147

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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  1. Troy Davig, 2007. "Phillips curve instability and optimal monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 07-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  2. Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Globalization and inflation dynamics: the impact of increased competition," Staff Reports 324, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience," Discussion Papers 2008-06, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
  5. David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 17-50. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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