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Inflation Dynamics

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Author Info
Frederic S. Mishkin

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Abstract

This paper first outlines the key stylized facts about changes in inflation dynamics in recent years: 1) inflation persistence has declined, 2) the Phillips curve has flattened, and 3) inflation has become less responsive to other shocks. These changes in inflation dynamics are interpreted as resulting from an anchoring of inflation expectations as a result of better monetary policy. The paper then goes on to draw implications for monetary policy from this interpretation, as well as implications for inflation forecasts.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13147.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13147

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Troy Davig, 2007. "Phillips curve instability and optimal monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 07-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  2. Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Globalization and inflation dynamics: the impact of increased competition," Staff Reports 324, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alf Vanags & Morten Hansen, 2008. "Stagflation in Latvia: how long, how far, how deep?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 5-28, October. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience," Discussion Papers 2008-06, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Bharat Trehan, 2009. "Survey measures of expected inflation and the inflation process," Working Paper Series 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  7. Barbara Meller & Dieter Nautz, 2009. "The Impact of the European Monetary Union on Inflation Persistence in the Euro Area," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics," Economics working papers 2008-17, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  12. David G. Blanchflower & Conall MacCoille, 2009. "The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK," NBER Working Papers 15388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 17-50. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  15. William C. Dudley & Jennifer Roush & Michelle Steinberg Ezer, 2009. "The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-17. [Downloadable!]
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