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Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis

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Author Info
Aisen, Ari
Veiga, Francisco Jose

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Abstract

Economists generally accept the proposition that high inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society's welfare and economic growth. However, determining the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflationary experiences is an important challenge not yet satisfactorily confronted by the profession. Based on a dataset covering around 100 countries for the period 1960-99 and using modern panel data econometric techniques to control for endogeneity, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with higher inflation. The paper also draws relevant policy implications for the optimal design of inflation stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0064
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 (August)
Pages: 1379-1389
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:5:p:1379-1389

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear two-step GMM estimators," IFS Working Papers W00/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ari Aisen & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "Political Instability and Inflation Volatility," NIPE Working Papers 2/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt Hebbel, 2008. "What Drives Inflation in the World?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 491, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thomas Stratmann & Bernardin Akitoby, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Mark J Flanagan & Felix Hammermann, 2007. "What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?," IMF Working Papers 07/189, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ari Aisen & David Hauner, 2008. "Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: A Fresh Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/42, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Felix Hammermann & Mark Flanagan, 2007. "What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?," Kiel Working Papers 1373, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Harald Badinger, . "Globalization,the Output-Inflation Tradeoff, and Inflation," FIW Working Paper series 010, FIW. [Downloadable!]
  8. Berggren, Niclas & Bergh, Andreas & Bjørnskov, Christian, 2009. "The growth effects of institutional instability," Working Papers 2009:8, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Thomas Stratmann & Bernardin Akitoby, 2009. "The Value of Institutions for Financial Markets: Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 09/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christopher Bowdler & Adeel Malik, 2005. "Openness and inflation volatility: Cross-country evidence," Economics Papers 2005-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  11. Manoel Bittencourt, 2009. "Polarisation, Populism and Hyperinflation[s]: Some Evidence from Latin America," Working Papers 200921, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Felix Hammermann, 2007. "Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation in Romania: A Decomposition," Kiel Working Papers 1322, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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