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Adoption of inflation targeting and tax revenue performance in emerging market economies: An empirical investigation

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  • Lucotte, Yannick
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    Abstract

    Inflation targeting is a monetary policy framework which was adopted by several emerging countries over the last decade. Previous empirical studies suggest that inflation targeting has significant effects on either inflation or inflation variability in emerging targeting countries. But, by reinforcing the disinflation process and so, by reducing drastically seigniorage revenue, the adoption of this monetary policy framework could also affect the design of fiscal policy. In a recent paper, Minea and Villieu (2009a) show theoretically that inflation targeting provides an incentive for governments to improve institutional quality in order to enhance tax revenue performance. In this paper, we test this theoretical prediction by investigating whether the adoption of inflation targeting affects the fiscal effort in emerging markets economies. Using propensity score matching methodology, we evaluate the “treatment effect” of inflation targeting on fiscal mobilization in thirteen emerging countries that have adopted this monetary policy framework by the end of 2004. Our results show that, on average, inflation targeting has a significant positive effect on public revenue collection.

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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23871.

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    Date of creation: 13 Jul 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23871

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    Keywords: Inflation targetingk; Public revenue; Treatment effect; Propensity score matching; Emerging countries.;

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    1. Miguel A. Savastano & Paul R. Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jon Faust & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Is inflation targeting best-practice monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 117-144.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan, 1999. "Who targets inflation explicitly?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1257-1277, June.
    4. Hélène EHRHART, 2009. "Assessing the relationship between democracy and domestic taxes in developing countries," Working Papers 200930, CERDI.
    5. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
    6. Hélène Ehrhart & Alexandru Minea & P. Villieu, 2011. "Deficit, Seigniorage and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries," Working Papers halshs-00554257, HAL.
    7. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2005. "Some Practical Guidance for the Implementation of Propensity Score Matching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 485, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 1998. "Causal Effects in Non-Experimental Studies: Re-Evaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs," NBER Working Papers 6586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    10. Yannick Lucotte, 2009. "Central Bank Independence and Budget Deficits in Developing Countries: New Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Post-Print halshs-00447398, HAL.
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    13. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
    14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 7618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
    17. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Does high inflation cause central bankers to lose their job? Evidence based on a new data set," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 778-787, December.
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    20. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    21. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," IDB Publications 6827, Inter-American Development Bank.
    22. Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2009. "Threshold effects in monetary and fiscal policies in a growth model: Assessing the importance of the financial system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 304-319, June.
    23. Donato Masciandaro & Guido Tabellini, 1987. "Monetary regimes and fiscal deficits: a comparative analysis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 125-152.
    24. repec:nbr:nberwo:12876 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Marc Zelmer & Andrea Schaechter & Mark R. Stone & Alina Carare, 2002. "Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 02/102, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Joyce, Joseph P. & Nabar, Malhar, 2009. "Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 314-322, November.
    27. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April.
    28. Shahidur R. Khandker & Gayatri B. Koolwal & Hussain A. Samad, 2010. "Handbook on Impact Evaluation : Quantitative Methods and Practices," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2693.
    29. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," Macroeconomics 0502026, EconWPA.
    30. Huang, Haizhou & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "Monetary Policies for Developing Countries: The Role of Institutional Quality," CEPR Discussion Papers 4911, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Francesca Castellani & Xavier Debrun, 2001. "Central Bank Independence and the Design of Fiscal Institutions," IMF Working Papers 01/205, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Determinants of Tax Revenue Efforts in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/184, International Monetary Fund.
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