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Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy – Real versus Nominal Shocks

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Abstract

This paper analyses the role of real and nominal shocks in explaining business cycles in a small open economy like that of Norway. In particular, we study the sources behind real exchange rate fluctuations since the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement. Imposing long run restrictions implied by economic theory on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing GDP, unemployment (or price), real wage and the real exchange rate, four structural shocks are identified; Velocity (or monetary), fiscal, productivity and labour supply shocks. The model is also augmented to allow for oil price shocks.The identified shocks and their impulse responses are consistent with an open economy (Keynesian) model of economic fluctuations, and highlights the exchange rate as a transmission mechanism in a small open and energy based economy. Especially, I have found a plausible sequence of shocks (productivity shocks in the 1970s, velocity shocks in the mid-1980s, productivity and labour supply shocks in the late 1980s, and velocity and fiscal shocks in the early 1990s), which help to explain the evolution of GDP, unemployment, price, real wage and the real exchange rate. The results are robust to alternative specifications of the model and are stable over the sample.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 215.

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Date of creation: Mar 1998
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:215

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Keywords: Real and nominal shocks; exchange rate fluctuations; purchasing power parity; dynamic restrictions; structural VAR;

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References

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Eika, K.H. & Ericsson, N.R. & Nymoen, R., 1996. "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Memorandum 32/1996, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  5. Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1993. "The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances: comment," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10159, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
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  8. Clarida, R. & Gali, J., 1993. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," Discussion Papers, Columbia University, Department of Economics 1993_25, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  9. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  13. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  14. Serletis, Apostolos & Zimonopoulos, Grigorios, 1997. "Breaking Trend Functions in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Seventeen OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 781-802, October.
  15. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
  16. Blanchard, Olivier, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 244-46, May.
  17. Solow, Robert M, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics We Should All Believe In?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 230-32, May.
  18. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
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  22. David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  24. Hilde Christiane Bjørnland, 1997. "Estimating Core Inflation - The Role of Oil Price Shocks and Imported Inflation," Discussion Papers, Research Department of Statistics Norway 200, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2008. "Economic integration and industrial sector fluctuations: evidence from Italy," ISAE Working Papers, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) 106, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  2. Jaanus Raim, 2004. "The Alternative to the Existing System of the Concepts about Purchasing Power Parity Deviations . Derived from the Estonian Experience," Working Papers, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology 115, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.
  3. Mohsen Mehrara, 2006. "Analyzing Exchange Rate Misalignment in Iran Based on Structural VAR Approach," Iranian Economic Review, Economics faculty of Tehran university, vol. 11(1), pages 39-58, winter.
  4. Mehrara, Mohsen & Oskoui, Kamran Niki, 2007. "The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 365-379, May.
  5. Lanteri , Luis N., 2012. "Choques macroeconómicos al sector externo. Evidencia para la Argentina (1980-2011)/Macroeconomic Shocks to the External Sector. Evidence for Argentina (1980-2011)," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 1061 (24 pa, Diciembre.

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