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Economic integration and industrial sector fluctuations: evidence from Italy

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  • Tatiana Cesaroni

    (MEF)

Abstract

This paper investigates the underlying sources of the Italian industrial sector fluctuations. It concentrates in particular on the role of different shocks on the manufacturing business cycle. To this end, it considers both domestic shocks (to hours worked and to technology) and external shocks (i.e. competitiveness and world trade shocks). The former concern internal conditions such as labour market and productivity dynamics; the latter relate to the effects of economic integration, globalization and the world economy scenario on the manufacturing sector performance. The findings show that although the cyclical fluctuations are mainly determined by productivity shock, hours worked and world trade shocks also contribute significantly to explaining the manufacturing business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) in its series ISAE Working Papers with number 106.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:106

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Keywords: Business cycle; Italian Industry performance; SVAR model; Economic integration; World trade;

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  1. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2007. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," CSEF Working Papers 182, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  2. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  3. G. Peersman, 2004. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/235, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  4. Gavosto, Andrea & Pellegrini, Guido, 1999. "Demand and supply shocks in Italy:: An application to industrial output," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1679-1703, October.
  5. Dufourt, 2005. "Demand and productivity components of business cycles: Estimates and implications," Macroeconomics 0501013, EconWPA, revised 08 Sep 2005.
  6. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Measures of per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1071-1097, 09.
  7. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  9. Funke, Michael, 1997. "The Nature of Shocks in Europe and in Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 461-69, August.
  10. Funke, Michael, 1997. "How important are demand and supply shocks in explaining German business cycles?: New evidence on an old debate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-37, January.
  11. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 1998. "Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy – Real versus Nominal Shocks," Discussion Papers 215, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  12. Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Sources of business cycles in Europe: 1960-1988. Evidence from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1763-1778, December.
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