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Estimating Core Inflation - The Role of Oil Price Shocks and Imported Inflation

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Abstract

This paper calculates core inflation, by imposing long run restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing the growth rate of output, inflation and oil prices. Core inflation is identified as that component in inflation that has no long run effect on output. No restrictions are placed on the response of output and inflation to the oil price shocks. The analysis is applied to Norway and the United Kingdom, both oil producing OECD countries. A model that distinguishes between domestic and imported inflation, is also specified for Norway. In both countries, core inflation is a prime mover of CPI (RPI) inflation. However, CPI (RPI) inflation overvalues or undervalues core inflation in many periods, of which oil price shocks are important sources behind this deviation for prolonged periods

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 200.

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Date of creation: Aug 1997
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:200

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Keywords: Core inflation; inflation target; long-run neutrality; oil price shocks; imported inflation; structural VAR.;

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References

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  1. Rodseth, Asbjorn, 1996. " Exchange Rate versus Price Level Targets and Output Stability," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 559-77, December.
  2. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  3. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John Burbidge & Alan Harrison, 1982. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," School of Economics Working Papers 1982-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  5. Ray Barrell & Knut A. Magnussen, 1996. "Counterfactual Analyses of Oil Price Shocks using a World Model," Discussion Papers 177, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1996. "Inflation Targeting in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and in General," NBER Working Papers 5579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ahmed, Ehsan & Rosser, J. Jr. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1988. "A global model of OECD aggregate supply and demand using vector autoregressive techniques," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1711-1729, November.
  8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  9. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
  10. John M. Roberts, 1990. "The sources of business cycles: a monetarist interpretation," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Gert Wehinger, 2000. "Causes of Inflation in Europe, the United States and Japan: Some Lessons for Maintaining Price Stability in the EMU from a Structural VAR Approach," Empirica, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 83-107, March.
  2. Landau, Bettina, 2000. "Core inflation rates: a comparison of methods based on west German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 1998. "Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy – Real versus Nominal Shocks," Discussion Papers 215, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  4. Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada.
  5. Jamie Armour, 2006. "An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures," Working Papers 06-10, Bank of Canada.
  6. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, 1999. "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England.

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