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Estimating Core Inflation - The Role of Oil Price Shocks and Imported Inflation

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Author Info
Hilde Christiane Bjørnland (Statistics Norway)

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Abstract

This paper calculates core inflation, by imposing long run restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing the growth rate of output, inflation and oil prices. Core inflation is identified as that component in inflation that has no long run effect on output. No restrictions are placed on the response of output and inflation to the oil price shocks. The analysis is applied to Norway and the United Kingdom, both oil producing OECD countries. A model that distinguishes between domestic and imported inflation, is also specified for Norway. In both countries, core inflation is a prime mover of CPI (RPI) inflation. However, CPI (RPI) inflation overvalues or undervalues core inflation in many periods, of which oil price shocks are important sources behind this deviation for prolonged periods

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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 200.

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Date of creation: Aug 1997
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:200

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Related research
Keywords: Core inflation; inflation target; long-run neutrality; oil price shocks; imported inflation; structural VAR.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Bennett T. McCallum, 1998. "Inflation Targeting in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and in General," NBER Working Papers 5579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ahmed, Ehsan & Rosser, J. Jr. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1988. "A global model of OECD aggregate supply and demand using vector autoregressive techniques," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1711-1729, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Rodseth, Asbjorn, 1996. " Exchange Rate versus Price Level Targets and Output Stability," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 98(4), pages 559-77, December.
  5. John M. Roberts, 1990. "The sources of business cycles: a monetarist interpretation," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-84, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jamie Armour, 2006. "An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures," Working Papers 06-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, . "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Landau, Bettina, 2000. "Core inflation rates: A comparison of methods based on west German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 1998. "Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy – Real versus Nominal Shocks," Discussion Papers 215, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
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