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Asymptotic confidence intervals for impulse responses of near-integrated processes

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Nikolay Gospodinov

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Abstract

Many economic time series are characterized by high persistence which typically requires nonstandard limit theory for inference. This paper proposes a new method for constructing confidence intervals for impulse response functions and half-lives of nearly non-stationary processes. It is based on inverting the acceptance region of the likelihood ratio statistic under a sequence of null hypotheses of possible values for the impulse response or the half-life. This paper shows the consistency of the restricted estimator of the localizing constant which ensures the validity of the asymptotic inference. The proposed method is used to study the persistence of shocks to real exchange rates. Copyright Royal Economic Socciety 2004

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Econometrics Journal.

Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 505-527
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Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:7:y:2004:i:2:p:505-527

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  1. Elena Pesavento & Barbara Rossi, 2006. "Impulse Responses Confidence Intervals for Persistent Data: What Have We Learned?," Emory Economics 0603, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jayasuriya, Sisira & Kim, Jae & Kumar, Parmod, 2007. "International and Internal Market Integration in Indian agriculture: A study of the Indian Rice Market," 106th Seminar, October 25-27, 2007, Montpellier, France 7935, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jae Kim & Param Silvapulle & Rob J. Hyndman, 2006. "Half-Life Estimation based on the Bias-Corrected Bootstrap: A Highest Density Region Approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Barbara Rossi & Elena Pesavento, 2006. "Small-sample confidence intervals for multivariate impulse response functions at long horizons," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1135-1155. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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