IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptl/wpaper/53.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Temporal Aggregation and Convergence to the Law of One Price: Evidence from Micro Data

Author

Listed:
  • Andres Elberg

    (Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad Diego Portales)

Abstract

Estimates of speed of convergence towards the Law of One Price (LOP) are potentially afflicted by three sources of bias: temporal aggregation; aggregation across goods; and short samples. I empirically assess the importance of temporal aggregation bias (while accounting for the other two sources of bias) using a novel dataset of weekly-sampled retail prices. I find that temporal aggregation can severely bias estimates of persistence in relative prices. Using quarterly aggregated data can overestimate the half-life of deviations from the LOP by a factor exceeding 2. In contrast, I do not find evidence that aggregation across goods biases persistence estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Andres Elberg, 2014. "Temporal Aggregation and Convergence to the Law of One Price: Evidence from Micro Data," Working Papers 53, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad Diego Portales.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptl:wpaper:53
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.udp.cl/descargas/facultades_carreras/economia/pdf/documentos_investigacion/wp_53_temporal_aggregation.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "Understanding International Price Differences Using Barcode Data," NBER Working Papers 14017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    3. Richardson, J. David, 1978. "Some empirical evidence on commodity arbitrage and the law of one price," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-351, May.
    4. So, Beong Soo & Shin, Dong Wan, 1999. "Recursive mean adjustment in time-series inferences," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 65-73, May.
    5. Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Temporal Aggregation Of Univariate And Multivariate Time Series Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 458-497, July.
    6. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    7. Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler & Adina‐Ioana Tarcolea, 2006. "Combining Significance of Correlated Statistics with Application to Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 647-663, October.
    8. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    9. Janet Ceglowski, 2003. "The law of one price: intranational evidence for Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 373-400, May.
    10. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
    11. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1998. "Real exchange rates under the recent float: unequivocal evidence of mean reversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 131-137, August.
    12. MarioJ. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2010. "The Law of One Price without the Border: The Role of Distance versus Sticky Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 462-480, May.
    13. Chambers, Marcus J., 2005. "The purchasing power parity puzzle, temporal aggregation, and half-life estimation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 193-198, February.
    14. Mario J. Crucini & Chris I. Telmer & Marios Zachariadis, 2005. "Understanding European Real Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 724-738, June.
    15. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July.
    16. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Convergence to the Law of One Price Without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1211-1236.
    17. Choi, Chi-Young & Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2006. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 921-938, June.
    18. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2011. "Menu Costs, Multiproduct Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1139-1180, July.
    19. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 629-644, April.
    20. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    21. Andrés Elberg, 2014. "Heterogeneous Price Dynamics, Synchronization, and Retail Chains: Evidence from Scanner Data," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 137-153, November.
    22. C. Simon Fan & Xiangdong Wei, 2006. "The Law of One Price: Evidence from the Transitional Economy of China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 682-697, November.
    23. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    24. Rogers, John H., 2007. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: How close is Europe to the USA?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 785-796, April.
    25. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    26. Etienne Gagnon, 2009. "Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1221-1263.
    27. Martin Eichenbaum & Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Reference Prices, Costs, and Nominal Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 234-262, February.
    28. Andres Elberg, 2014. "Heterogeneous Price Dynamics, Synchronization, and Retail Chains: Evidence from Scanner Data," Working Papers 52, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad Diego Portales.
    29. Isard, Peter, 1977. "How Far Can We Push the "Law of One Price"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 942-948, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Bonino Gayoso, 2019. "Convergencia de precios en el largo plazo en Uruguay. Evidencia empírica para 4 bienes," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0119, Department of Economics - dECON.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elberg, Andrés, 2016. "Sticky prices and deviations from the Law of One Price: Evidence from Mexican micro-price data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 191-203.
    2. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    3. Kitenge, Erick M. & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2019. "Price convergence among Indian cities: The role of linguistic differences, topography, and aggregation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-50.
    4. Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz & Rembert De Blander, 2009. "Price convergence in the European Union and in the New Member States," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 40(2), pages 37-59.
    5. Meher Manzur, 2018. "Exchange rate economics is always and everywhere controversial," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 216-232, January.
    6. Choi, Chi-Young & Matsubara, Kiyoshi, 2007. "Heterogeneity in the persistence of relative prices: What do the Japanese cities tell us?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 260-286, June.
    7. M. Ege Yazgan & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2016. "High versus low inflation: implications for price-level convergence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1527-1563, June.
    8. Baxter, Marianne & Landry, Anthony, 2017. "IKEA: Product, pricing, and pass-through," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 507-520.
    9. Wimanda, Rizki E., 2009. "Price variability and price convergence: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 427-442, September.
    10. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    11. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 629-644, April.
    12. Méjean, Isabelle & Schwellnus, Cyrille, 2009. "Price convergence in the European Union: Within firms or composition of firms?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 1-10, June.
    13. Ming-Jen Chang, 2016. "Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence From Pacific Rim Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-20, September.
    14. Caglayan, Mustafa & Filiztekin, Alpay, 2012. "The law of one price and the role of market structure," MPRA Paper 36975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2009. "On the usefulness of the contrarian strategy across national stock markets: A grid bootstrap analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 734-744, December.
    16. Choi, Chi-Young & Choi, Horag, 2016. "The role of two frictions in geographic price dispersion: When market friction meets nominal rigidity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-27.
    17. Robertson, Raymond & Kumar, Anil & Dutkowsky, Donald H., 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity and aggregation bias for a developing country: The case of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 237-243, November.
    18. Yin-Wong Cheung & Eiji Fujii, 2008. "Deviations from the Law of One Price in Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 2275, CESifo.
    19. Saileshsingh Gunessee & Cheng Zhang, 2022. "The economics of domestic market integration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1069-1095, September.
    20. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptl:wpaper:53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Enrique Calfucura (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feudpcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.