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Recursive mean adjustment in time-series inferences

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Author Info
So, Beong Soo
Shin, Dong Wan
Abstract

When time-series data are positively autocorrelated, mean adjustment using the overall sample mean causes biases for sample autocorrelations and parameter estimates, which decreases the coverage probabilities of confidence intervals. A new method for mean adjustment is proposed, in which a datum at a time is adjusted for the mean through the partial sample mean, the average of data up to the time point. The method is simple and reduces the biases of the parameter estimators and the sample autocorrelations when data are positively autocorrelated. The empirical coverage probabilities of the confidence intervals of the autoregressive coefficient become quite close to the nominal level.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Statistics & Probability Letters.

Volume (Year): 43 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 65-73
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Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:43:y:1999:i:1:p:65-73

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Keywords: Bias Confidence interval Mean adjustment Recursive residual;

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  1. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2004. "Does "Aggregation Bias" Explain the PPP Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 10304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Chang, Yoosoon & Park, Joon Y., 2004. "Taking a New Contour: A Novel View on Unit Root Test," Working Papers 2004-10, Rice University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chang, Yoosoon, 2004. "Taking a New Contour: A Novel Approach to Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers 2004-05, Rice University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Durmaz, Nazif, 2009. "Bias Correction and Out-of-Sample Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 16780, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2004. "Properties of Recursive Trend-Adjusted Unit Root Tests," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/31, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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