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Mean Reversion in Long-Horizon Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Latin America

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  • Pablo Astorga

Abstract

This paper analyses stability in real multilateral exchange rates in six leading Latin-American economies during the XXth century using a new data set. A univariate approach is complemented by an error-correction model including key fundamentals. Unit-root testing shows a very slow process of mean reversion - if any - in the series in levels; however, mean reversion is found after allowing for trends and structural breaks with half-life values ranges from 0.8 to 2.5 years. We also found reversion to a conditional mean defined by the co-integrating relationship, and that the equilibrium path is largely explained by fundamentals - especially terms of trade and trade openness. Exchange rate policy proved to have only a transitory effect in generating real depreciation.

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  • Pablo Astorga, 2010. "Mean Reversion in Long-Horizon Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Latin America," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _080, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_080
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    Cited by:

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    2. Paul David & S. Ryan Johansson & Andrea Pozzi, 2010. "The Demography of an Early Mortality Transition: Life Expectancy, Survival and Mortality Rates for Britain's Royals, 1500-1799," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _083, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Pablo Astorga, 2015. "Functional Inequality in Latin America: News from the Twentieth Century," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _135, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Zhang, Zhibai, 2014. "Is there a rule of thumb for absolute purchasing power parity to hold?," MPRA Paper 55338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Wohar, 2015. "Parity reversion in the Asian real exchange rates: new evidence from the local-persistent model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(59), pages 6395-6408, December.
    6. Paul A. David & S. Ryan Johansson & Andrea Pozzi, 2010. "The Demography of an Early Mortality Transition: Life Expectancy, Survival and Mortality Rates for Britain's Royals, 1500-1799," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _083, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    7. Frederick H Wallace & Daniel Ventosa-santaulària & Manuel Gómez-zaldívar, 2014. "Is The Real Effective Exchange Rate Biased Against the PPP Hypothesis?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 395-399.
    8. Melesse Tashu, 2015. "Drivers of Peru's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Is the Nuevo Sol a Commodity Currency?," IMF Working Papers 2015/026, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Rabe, Collin & Waddle, Andrea, 2020. "The evolution of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2016. "The Penn Effect Revisited: New Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 70593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Weber, Christoph S., 2019. "The effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 165-181.
    12. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "The Penn Effect revisited: New evidence from Latin America," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 1364-1379, November.
    13. Alsayed, Hamad & McGroarty, Frank, 2012. "Arbitrage and the Law of One Price in the market for American depository receipts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1258-1276.
    14. Pablo Astorga, 2015. "Functional Inequality in Latin America: News from the Twentieth Century," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _135, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Tashu, Melesse, 2018. "Determinantes del Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio en Perú: ¿Es el sol una moneda commodity?," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 36, pages 9-30.
    16. José María Serrano & María Dolores Gadea & Marcela Sabaté, 2016. "Lost in intervention. The Harrod--Balassa--Samuelson effect on the peseta/dollar real exchange rate (1870--1998)," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1012-1017, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rates; Purchasing power; Parity; Economic development; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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