IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/esohwp/_083.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Demography of an Early Mortality Transition: Life Expectancy, Survival and Mortality Rates for Britain's Royals, 1500-1799

Author

Listed:
  • Paul David
  • S. Ryan Johansson
  • Andrea Pozzi

Abstract

This paper details the statistical sources, methods and findings that underpin the demographic evidence offered by Johansson (2010) in support of her thesis regarding "Europe's first knowledge-driven mortality transition", namely the pronounced and sustained rise in the expectations of life that took place among the 17th and early 18th century birth cohorts of members of Britain's royal families. The consequent interest in exposing the existence of systematic demographic effects of changes in the medical treatments and healthcare regimes received by this elite makes it germane to establish the statistical significance of a particular pattern of inter-cohort changes in the royals' mortality experience - namely, one whose timing and age- and sex-specificity make it plausibly attributable to the historical improvements in the medical knowledge and practice of their doctors, as has been documented by Johansson (1999, 2010). Complete genealogical data for the members of Britain's royal families born c. 1500 - c. 1800, due to Weir (1996), permits construction of cohort life expectancy at birth and age 25 for royal males, royal females, as well as for the small number of male monarchs, their female consorts and the queens. Inter-cohort comparisons of life table mortality schedules are obtained by using the 5-year average survival rate distributions for the successive birth cohorts to estimate for each cohort the parameters of Anson's (1991) general model of age-specific mortality hazard rates - the empirical probability of dying within 5 years of age x, conditional on having survived to that age. A variety of tests show the gross changes of interest to be statistically significant. The discussion contrasts the mortality transition among the royal families' members with the contemporaneous demographic experience of rural and urban segments of the English population at large.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul David & S. Ryan Johansson & Andrea Pozzi, 2010. "The Demography of an Early Mortality Transition: Life Expectancy, Survival and Mortality Rates for Britain's Royals, 1500-1799," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _083, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/history/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Studer, Roman, 2008. "India and the Great Divergence: Assessing the Efficiency of Grain Markets in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century India," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 393-437, June.
    2. repec:oxf:wpaper:68.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Astorga, Pablo, 2012. "Mean reversion in long-horizon real exchange rates: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1529-1550.
    4. Avner Offer, 2008. "Charles Feinstein (1932-2005), and British Historical National Accounts," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _070, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Cliff T. Bekar and Clyde Reed, 2009. "Risk, Asset Markets and Inequality: Evidence from Medieval England," Economics Series Working Papers Number 79, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Gardner, Leigh, 2008. "To take or to make?: contracting for legitimacy in the emerging states of twelth century Britain," Economic History Working Papers 36861, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    7. repec:oxf:wpaper:72.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Tommy E. Murphy & Sandra González-Bailón, 2008. "When smaller families look contagious: a spatial look at the French fertility decline using an agent-based simulation model," Working Papers 8017, Economic History Society.
    9. C. Knick Harley, 2010. "Prices and Profits in Cotton Textiles During the Industrial Revolution," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _081, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    10. Daudin, Guillaume, 2010. "Domestic Trade and Market Size in Late-Eighteenth-Century France," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 716-743, September.
    11. Offer, Avner, 2008. "Charles Feinstein (1932–2005), And British Historical National Accounts," MPRA Paper 9489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:oxf:wpaper:69.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Scott Andrew Urban, 2009. "The Name of the Rose: Classifying 1930s Exchange-Rate Regimes," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _076, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. repec:oxf:wpaper:73.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Astorga, Pablo, 2012. "Mean reversion in long-horizon real exchange rates: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1529-1550.
    16. Leigh A. Gardner, 2008. "To Take or to Make? Contracting for Legitimacy in the Emerging States of Twelfth-Century Britain," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _073, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. David Chacko, 2009. "Medical Liability Litigation: An Historical Look at the Causes for Its Growth in the United Kingdom," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _077, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Offer, Avner & Pechey, Rachel & Ulijaszek, Stanley, 2010. "Obesity under affluence varies by welfare regimes: The effect of fast food, insecurity, and inequality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 297-308, December.
    19. Mark Koyama, 2009. "The Price of Time and Labour Supply: From the Black Death to the Industrious Revolution," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _078, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Offer, Avner & Pechey, Rachel & Ulijaszek, Stanley, 2010. "Obesity under affluence varies by welfare regimes: The effect of fast food, insecurity, and inequality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 297-308, December.
    21. Scott Andrew Urban, 2009. "The Name of the Rose: Classifying 1930s Exchange-Rate Regimes," Economics Series Working Papers Paper 76, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. Mark Koyama, 2009. "The Price of Time and Labour Supply: From the Black Death to the Industrious Revolution," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _078, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    23. Cliff T. Bekar & Clyde Reed, 2009. "Risk, Asset Markets and Inequality: Evidence from Medieval England," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _079, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. David Chacko, 2009. "Medical Liability Litigation: An Historical Look at the Causes for Its Growth in the United Kingdom," Economics Series Working Papers Paper 77, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    25. C. Knick Harley, 2010. "Prices and Profits in Cotton Textiles During the Industrial Revolution," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _081, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. S. Ryan Johansson, 2010. "Medics, Monarchs and Mortality, 1600-1800: Origins of the Knowledge-Driven Health Transition in Europe," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _085, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. S. Ryan Johansson, 2010. "Medics, Monarchs and Mortality, 1600-1800: Origins of the Knowledge-Driven Health Transition in Europe," Economics Series Working Papers Number85, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Cummins, Neil, 2017. "Lifespans of the European elite, 800–1800," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83576, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul A. David & S. Ryan Johansson & Andrea Pozzi, 2010. "The Demography of an Early Mortality Transition: Life Expectancy, Survival and Mortality Rates for Britain's Royals, 1500-1799," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _083, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Robert Allen, 2016. "The Hand-Loom Weaver and the Power Loom: A Schumpeterian Perspective," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _142, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Nicholas Rohde & KK Tang & Lars Osberg, 2017. "The self-reinforcing dynamics of economic insecurity and obesity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(17), pages 1668-1678, April.
    4. Lane Kenworthy & Timothy Smeeding, 2013. "GINI Country Report: Growing Inequalities and their Impacts in the United States," GINI Country Reports united_states, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
    5. Eric B. Schneider, 2014. "Prices and production: agricultural supply response in fourteenth-century England," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(1), pages 66-91, February.
    6. Chilosi, David & Murphy, Tommy E. & Studer, Roman & Tunçer, A. Coşkun, 2013. "Europe's many integrations: Geography and grain markets, 1620–1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 46-68.
    7. Currie, Phillippa & Smith, Trenton G. & Stillman, Steven, 2014. "Is Job Insecurity Making Australians Fat? Evidence from Panel Data on Perceived Risk of Job Loss," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170720, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Hruschka, Daniel J. & Brewis, Alexandra A., 2013. "Absolute wealth and world region strongly predict overweight among women (ages 18–49) in 360 populations across 36 developing countries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 337-344.
    9. Eric B. Schneider, 2014. "Prices and production: agricultural supply response in fourteenth-century England," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(1), pages 66-91, February.
    10. Rohde, Nicholas & Tang, Kam Ki & D’Ambrosio, Conchita & Osberg, Lars & Rao, Prasada, 2020. "Welfare-based income insecurity in the us and germany: evidence from harmonized panel data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 226-243.
    11. Baggio, Michele & Chong, Alberto, 2020. "Recreational marijuana laws and junk food consumption," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    12. Ferda Halicioglu, 2013. "Dynamics of obesity in Finland," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(5), pages 644-657, October.
    13. Conchita D'Ambrosio & Nicholas Rohde, 2014. "The Distribution of Economic Insecurity: Italy and the U.S. over the Great Recession," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 33-52, May.
    14. Albers, Thilo Nils Hendrik, 2018. "The prelude and global impact of the Great Depression: Evidence from a new macroeconomic dataset," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 150-163.
    15. Costa-Font, Joan & Mas, Núria, 2016. "‘Globesity’? The effects of globalization on obesity and caloric intake," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 121-132.
    16. Costa-Font, Joan & Hernández-Quevedo, Cristina & Jiménez-Rubio, Dolores, 2014. "Income inequalities in unhealthy life styles in England and Spain," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 66-75.
    17. Lyttkens, Carl Hampus, 2011. "Health, Economics and Ancient Greek Medicine," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 165-192.
    18. Egger, Garry & Swinburn, Boyd & Amirul Islam, F.M., 2012. "Economic growth and obesity: An interesting relationship with world-wide implications," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 147-153.
    19. Harley, C. Knick, 2012. "Was technological change in the early Industrial Revolution Schumpeterian? Evidence of cotton textile profitability," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 516-527.
    20. Nancy Kong & Lars Osberg & Weina Zhou, 2018. "The Shattered “Iron Rice Bowl”— Intergenerational Effects of Economic Insecurity During Chinese State-Owned Enterprise Reform," Discussion Papers Series 595, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_083. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Pouliquen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.