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Real Exchange Rates in Latin America: what does the 20th Century reveal?

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Author Info
Pablo Astorga ()
Abstract

Using a new data set for the whole period 1900-2005, this paper analyses the behaviour of real multilateral exchange rates in the six largest economies of Latin America. The main aims are to identify any trends or shifts in the equilibrium position and to test for mean reversion. The key findings are the following: i) evidence of real depreciation at the end of the period, compared to the starting position; ii) significant differences in real exchange rates derived using symmetric and asymmetric definitions; iii) a moderate level of intracountry synchronicity, though results vary across periods and pairs of countries; iv) not rejection of the unit-root hypothesis for the series in levels; however, v) the series can be made stationary after allowing for trends structural breaks. For the adjusted series, the half-life of the process ranges from 0.8 to 2.5 years.

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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones in its series Working Papers in Economic History with number wp07-03.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cte:whrepe:wp07-03

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    Other versions:
  4. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 768, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
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  13. Pablo Astorga & Ame R. Bergés & Valpy Fitzgerald, 2003. "Productivity Growth in Latin America during the Twentieth Century," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _052, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Menzie Chinn, 2006. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 115-143, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2004. "When Did Latin America Fall Behind?.Evidence From Long-Run International Inequality," Working Papers in Economic History wh046604, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones. [Downloadable!]
  18. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Solomos Solomou & Luis Catão, 2003. "Exchange Rates in the Periphery and International Adjustment Under the Gold Standard," IMF Working Papers 03/41, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Robert Lafrance & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2000. "The Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Standard of Living," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2000(Winter), pages 17-28. [Downloadable!]
  22. Christine Richaud & AristomÈne Varoudakis & Marie-Ange VÉganzonÈs, 2003. "Real exchange rate and openness in emerging economies: Argentina in the long run," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 293-303, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 8012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The limit distribution of the estimates in cointegrated regression models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 59-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    Other versions:
  27. Pablo Astorga & Ame E. Bergés & Valpy Fitzgerald, 2004. "The Standard of Living in Latin America During the Twentieth Century," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _054, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  28. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Pablo Astorga, 2009. "A Century of Economic Growth in Latin America," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _075, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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