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Real and nominal determinants of real exchange rates in Latin America: Short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium

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  • Joseph Joyce
  • Linda Kamas

Abstract

This article analyses the factors that determine the long-run real exchange rate in Argentina, Colombia and Mexico, distinguishing between real and nominal determinants. Cointegration analysis is utilised to establish that the real exchange rate has an equilibrium relationship with real variables (the terms of trade, capital flows, productivity, and government share of GDP) which excludes nominal variables (nominal exchange rate, money) and central bank intervention. Variance decompositions reveal that among the real variables that determine the real exchange rate, the terms of trade and productivity explain much of the variation in the real exchange rates. When nominal variables are included in the model, the nominal exchange rate accounts for most of the variation in the real exchange rates of all three countries. The impulse response functions are broadly consistent with theoretical predictions and shocks to the nominal variables have only transitory effects on the real exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Development Studies.

Volume (Year): 39 (2003)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 155-182

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:39:y:2003:i:6:p:155-182

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Cited by:
  1. Luis Alejandro Lee P & Angélica María Quiroga E., 2010. "Descomposición histórica de choques del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: un enfoque DSGE," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008294, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
  2. Rajagopal, 2006. "Where Did the Trade Liberalization Drive Latin American Economy: A Cross Section Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
  3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2008. "Do nominal devaluations lead to real devaluations? Evidence from 89 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 644-670, October.
  4. Pablo Astorga, 2010. "Mean Reversion in Long-Horizon Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Latin America," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _080, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  5. Guzin BAYAR & Selman TOKPUNAR, 2013. "Turk Lirasi Reel Kuru Denge Degerinde Mi?," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 13(4), pages 405-426.
  6. Alexius, Annika & Post, Erik, 2006. "Cointegration and the stabilizing role of exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2006:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  7. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2080-2090.
  8. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Estimating exchange rate responsiveness to shocks," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 338-351, December.

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