IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/inrsre/v15y1993i2p199-222.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Utility of Impulse Response Functions in Regional Analysis: Some Critical Issues

Author

Listed:
  • Jeff B. Cromwell

    (Institute for Labor Studies West Virginia University Morgantown, West Virginia 26506-6031 USA)

  • Michael J. Hannan

    (Department of Business Administration and Economics Edinboro University of Pennsylvania Edinboro, Pennsylvania 16444 USA)

Abstract

Regional scientists have long been interested in measuring the effects of various external and internal stimuli on a regional economy. Measuring the actual size and timing of exogenous and endogenous impacts has been of special interest, as numerical or estimation techniques allow regional actors (governments, business, and others) to make policy-type probability statements and actions in response to changes to these stimuli. Recently, the use of vector autoregressive (VAR) models and, consequently, impulse response functions has become increasingly popular. This paper will closely examine the VAR methodology and its assumptions and will address the types of empirical issues that arise from actual regional implementation. The issues of stationarity, model specification and selection, order determination, and impulse responses are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff B. Cromwell & Michael J. Hannan, 1993. "The Utility of Impulse Response Functions in Regional Analysis: Some Critical Issues," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 15(2), pages 199-222, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:15:y:1993:i:2:p:199-222
    DOI: 10.1177/016001769301500204
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/016001769301500204
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/016001769301500204?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
    2. Terrence Kinal & Jonathan Ratner, 1986. "A VAR Forecasting Model of a Regional Economy: Its Construction and Comparative Accuracy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 113-126, August.
    3. Helmut Lütkepohl, 1985. "Comparison Of Criteria For Estimating The Order Of A Vector Autoregressive Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 35-52, January.
    4. James P. Lesage & J. David Reed, 1989. "Interregional Wage Transmission in an Urban Hierarchy: Tests Using Vector Autoregressive Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 12(3), pages 305-318, December.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. M. B. Priestley, 1980. "State‐Dependent Models: A General Approach To Non‐Linear Time Series Analysis," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 47-71, January.
    7. Thomas F. Cargill & Steven A. Morus, 1988. "A vector autoregression model of the Nevada economy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 21-32.
    8. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
    9. A. I. McLeod & W. K. Li, 1983. "Diagnostic Checking Arma Time Series Models Using Squared‐Residual Autocorrelations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 269-273, July.
    10. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    11. Helmut Lütkepohl, 1982. "Differencing Multiple Time Series: Another Look At Canadian Money And Income Data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 235-243, July.
    12. Corman, Hope & Joyce, Theodore & Lovitch, Norman, 1987. "Crime, Deterrence and the Business Cycle in New York City: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 695-700, November.
    13. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
    14. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454-454, October.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Carolyn Sherwood-Call, 1988. "Exploring the relationships between national and regional economic fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 15-25.
    17. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Jacques Raynauld, 1988. "Canadian Regional Cycles: The Quebec-Ontario Case Revisited," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 115-128, February.
    19. William C. Gruben & William T. Long, 1988. "Forecasting the Texas economy: applications and evaluation of a systematic multivariate time series model," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 11-28.
    20. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    21. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1989. "A note on the asymptotic distribution of impulse response functions of estimated var models with orthogonal residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 371-376, November.
    22. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    23. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
    24. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    25. LeSage, James P, 1990. "A Comparison of the Forecasting Ability of ECM and VAR Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 664-671, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rickman, Dan S. & Miller, Steven R., 2002. "An Evaluation of Alternative Strategies for Incorporating Interindustry Relationships into a Regional Employment Forecasting Model," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 32(1), pages 133-147, Winter/Sp.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    2. Esposti, Roberto, 2002. "Public agricultural R&D design and technological spill-ins: A dynamic model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 693-717, July.
    3. Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2013. "The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 366-374.
    4. Roberto ESPOSTI, 2000. "Public R&D Design and Technological Spill-Ins. A Dynamic Model," Working Papers 136, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    5. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    6. Kim, Jin-Ock, 1990. "A time series analysis of the real exchange rate movement in Korea," ISU General Staff Papers 1990010108000010378, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Vivek Bhargava & Akash Dania, 2012. "Information dynamics effects from major world markets to SAARC nations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(4), pages 850-867, October.
    8. Michelle Casario, 1996. "North American Free Trade Agreement Bilateral Trade Effects," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(1), pages 36-47, January.
    9. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Can family-planning programs "cause" a significant fertility decline in countries characterized by very low levels of socioeconomic development? New evidence from Bangladesh based on dynamic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 441-468, August.
    10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    11. Gavosto, Andrea & Pellegrini, Guido, 1999. "Demand and supply shocks in Italy:: An application to industrial output," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1679-1703, October.
    12. Andrés Rivas & Rahul Verma & Antonio Rodriguez & Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2005. "Do European Stock Markets Affect Latin American Stock Markets?," Finance 0512017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. P. J. Dawson, 2005. "The export-income relationship: the case of India," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 5(1), pages 16-29, January.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 1991. "Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 705-735, December.
    15. Josea. Pagan & Sukhjit Sethi & Gokce Soydemir, 2001. "The impact of promotion/advertising expenditures on citrus sales," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(10), pages 659-663.
    16. José María Gil & J. Clemente & A, Montañés & M. Reyes, 1996. "Integración espacial y cointegración: una aplicación al mercado de cereales en España," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 6, pages 103-130, Diciembre.
    17. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    18. Gediminas Adomavicius & Jesse Bockstedt & Alok Gupta, 2012. "Modeling Supply-Side Dynamics of IT Components, Products, and Infrastructure: An Empirical Analysis Using Vector Autoregression," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 397-417, June.
    19. Glass, Anthony, 2009. "Government expenditure on public order and safety, economic growth and private investment: Empirical evidence from the United States," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 29-37, March.
    20. Gokce Soydemir & A. George Petrie, 2003. "Intraday information transmission between DJIA spot and futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 817-827.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:15:y:1993:i:2:p:199-222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.