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Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Reinhart, Vincent

Abstract

Using annual data for Colombia over the last 30 years, we test competing theories that explain macroeconomic fluctuations: the neoclassical synthesis, which posits that in the presence of temporary price rigidity, an unanticipated monetary expansion produces output gains that erode over time with increases in the price level; and an alternative explanation, which focuses on "real" technological or preference shocks as sources of output changes. Coefficients from this system are used to examine the long-run neutrality of nominal quantities with respect to permanent movements in the money stock and the short-run sensitivity of output to inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6980.

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Date of creation: Dec 1991
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Publication status: Published in IMF Staff Papers 4.38(1991): pp. 705-735
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6980

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Keywords: Colombia; inflation; growth; exchange rates; VAR;

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References

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  1. Plosser, Charles I, 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 51-77, Summer.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  4. Peter Montiel & Jonathan David Ostry, 1991. "Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/29, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "Coffee, money and inflation in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(11-12), pages 1107-1117.
  7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  9. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
  10. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 79-90, Summer.
  11. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  12. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1020-27, December.
  13. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1984. "On the monetary-macro dynamics of Colombia and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 183-201.
  14. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
  15. Ohanian, Lee E., 1988. "The spurious effects of unit roots on vector autoregressions : A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 251-266, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan Carlos Echeverry, 1996. "Short run savings fluctuations and export shocks theory and evidence for Latin America," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003497, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2002. "The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1.
  3. Raju, Sudhakar S. & Melo, Alberto, 2003. "Money, real output, and deficit effects of coffee booms in Colombia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 963-983, December.
  4. Kamas, Linda, 1995. "Monetary policy and inflation under the crawling peg: Some evidence from VARs for Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-161, February.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen, 1993. "Output fluctuations and monetary shocks in Colombia: A reply to Garcia," MPRA Paper 13354, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Joseph Joyce & Linda Kamas, 1997. "The relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks to output and prices in Mexico and Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 458-478, September.
  7. Gonzalo Hernández, 2011. "Terms of Trade and Output Fluctuations in Colombia," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-04, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  8. José R Sánchez-Fung, 2000. "Money Demand, PPP and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Developing Economy," Studies in Economics 0015, Department of Economics, University of Kent.

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