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Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia

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Author Info
Reinhart, Carmen
Reinhart, Vincent

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Abstract

Using annual data for Colombia over the last 30 years, we test competing theories that explain macroeconomic fluctuations: the neoclassical synthesis, which posits that in the presence of temporary price rigidity, an unanticipated monetary expansion produces output gains that erode over time with increases in the price level; and an alternative explanation, which focuses on "real" technological or preference shocks as sources of output changes. Coefficients from this system are used to examine the long-run neutrality of nominal quantities with respect to permanent movements in the money stock and the short-run sensitivity of output to inflation.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6980/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6980.

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Date of creation: Dec 1991
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Publication status: Published in IMF Staff Papers 4.38(1991): pp. 705-735
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6980

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Related research
Keywords: Colombia; inflation; growth; exchange rates; VAR;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Plosser, Charles I, 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 51-77, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Peter Montiel & Jonathan David Ostry, 1991. "Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/29, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. H. Lütkepohl, . "Vector Autoregressions," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-4, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  7. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 79-90, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1020-27, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1984. "On the monetary-macro dynamics of Colombia and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 183-201. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "Coffee, money and inflation in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(11-12), pages 1107-1117. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ohanian, Lee E., 1988. "The spurious effects of unit roots on vector autoregressions : A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 251-266, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan Carlos Echeverry, 1996. "Short run savings fluctuations and export shocks theory and evidence for Latin America," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003497, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2000. "The impact of banking crises on money demand and price stability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2305, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. José R Sánchez-Fung, 2000. "Money Demand, PPP and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Developing Economy," Studies in Economics 0015, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  4. Reinhart, Carmen, 1993. "Output fluctuations and monetary shocks in Colombia: A reply to Garcia," MPRA Paper 13354, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Joseph Joyce & Linda Kamas, 1997. "The relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks to output and prices in Mexico and Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 458-478, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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