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Integración espacial y cointegración: una aplicación al mercado de cereales en España

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Author Info
José María Gil (Servicio de Investigación Agroalimentaria. Diputación General de Aragón.)
J. Clemente (Universidad de Zaragoza)
A, Montañés (Universidad de Zaragoza)
M. Reyes (Universidad de Zaragoza)

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Abstract

El objetivo del presente trabajo se centra en verificar el cumplimiento de la Ley de Precio Unico (LPU) en mercados separados espacialmente, utilizando el enfoque de cointegración. Se han considerado dos mercados: trigo y cebada, y cuatro zonas productoras-consumidoras de dichos cereales: Ebro, Castilla-León, Castilla-La Mancha y Andalucía. Estas cuatro áreas concentran el 95% de la producción de ambos cereales. El período muestral se inicia tras la entrada de España en la CE y abarca campañas de comercialización completas (Julio 1986 - Junio 1994). El análisis de las propiedades univariantes de las series demuestra que, en ambos mercados, todas las series son integradas del mismo orden y, además, están cointegradas, esto es, existe una relación de equilibrio a largo plazo entre las mismas. Asímismo, se verifica el cumplimiento de la LPU. Finalmente, se analizan las relaciones dinámicas a corto plazo existentes entre los precios de las diferentes zonas. Incrementos de los precios en las zonas productoras determinan aumentos de los precios en el resto. En cambio, si el shock se produce en las zonas más deficitarias, el signo de las respuestas es el opuesto aunque la duración de dichas respuestas es corta. This paper uses the multivariate cointegration testing procedures developed by Johansen to evaluate the law of one price (LOP) in the wheat and barley Spanish markets. Four regions are considered: Ebro, Castilla-León, Castilla-La Mancha and Andalucía which account for arround 95% of total Spanish production. The sample period starts after accession to the European Union and covers eight cereals marketing season (July 1986 - June 1994).The unit root tests indicate that all series are integrated of the same order. Johansen procedures show that prices in both markets are cointegrated and it is not possible to reject the null of LOP. Finally, an error conrrection model is estimated to evaluate short-run dynamic relationships among wheal and barley prices. Positive shocks in areas where surpluses exist generate a positive response in other markets. On the other hand, a shock in deficit regions provoke a short and negative response.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 6 (1996)
Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
Pages: 103-130
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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:6_3_5

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Related research
Keywords: Law of One Price; Cointegration; Impulse response functions; error correction models; cereals;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Crouhy-veyrac, Liliane & Crouhy, Michel & Melitz, Jacques, 1982. "More about the law of one price," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 325-344. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
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