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A VAR Forecasting Model of a Regional Economy: Its Construction and Comparative Accuracy

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  • Terrence Kinal

    (Department of Economics, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, New York 12222 USA)

  • Jonathan Ratner

    (U.S. General Accounting Office, Office of the Chief Economist, 441 G Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20548 USA)

Abstract

The usefulness of the vector autoregression (VAR) approach to forecasting regional economies is explored. A VAR model and a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of selected New York State economic variables are constructed using monthly data. Their predictions about these variables are compared with ARIMA and transfer function model forecasts. Overall, the accuracy of BVAR matches or exceeds that of the other techniques. Thus, a previous suggestion that BVAR is promising, as a forecasting tool and as a benchmark for regional forecasts, is supported.

Suggested Citation

  • Terrence Kinal & Jonathan Ratner, 1986. "A VAR Forecasting Model of a Regional Economy: Its Construction and Comparative Accuracy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 113-126, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:10:y:1986:i:2:p:113-126
    DOI: 10.1177/016001768601000202
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    1. Thomas B. Fomby & William C. Gruben & James G. Hoehn, 1984. "Some time series methods of forecasting the Texas economy," Working Papers 8402, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2008. "Spatial Bayesian Methods Of Forecasting House Prices In Six Metropolitan Areas Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(2), pages 298-313, June.
    3. Jeff B. Cromwell & Michael J. Hannan, 1993. "The Utility of Impulse Response Functions in Regional Analysis: Some Critical Issues," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 15(2), pages 199-222, August.
    4. Susi Gorbey & Doug James & Jacques Poot, 1999. "Population Forecasting with Endogenous Migration: An Application to Trans-Tasman Migration," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 22(1), pages 69-101, April.
    5. Rangan Gupta, 2009. "Bayesian Methods Of Forecasting Inventory Investment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 113-126, March.
    6. Pop, Raluca-Elena, 2017. "A small-scale DSGE-VAR model for the Romanian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-9.
    7. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Ceballos, Alejandro & Walke, Adam G., 2015. "Short-Term Forecasting Analysis for Municipal Water Demand," MPRA Paper 78259, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Aug 2015.
    8. John E. Connaughton & Ronald A. Madsen, 1990. "A Comparison of Regional Forecasting Techniques," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 20(3), pages 4-11, Fall.
    9. Won Lee Kyung & James Schmidt & George Rejda, 1999. "Unemployment Insurance and State Economic Activity," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 77-95.
    10. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah, 2017. "GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3880-3890, August.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2010. "Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 294-319, October.
    12. John S. Gruidl & Glen C. Pulver, 1991. "A Dynamic Analysis Of Net Migration And State Employment Change," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 21-38, Spring.
    13. Gary L. Shoesmith, 1990. "The Forecasting Accuracy of Regional Bayesian VAR Models with Alternative National Variable Choices," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 13(3), pages 257-269, December.
    14. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2010. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables in a small open economy: a comparison between small- and large-scale models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 168-185.
    15. Carol Taylor West, 1995. "Regional Economic Forecasting: Keeping the Crystal Ball Rolling," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 18(2), pages 195-200, April.
    16. Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 8(Fall).
    17. Sarantis, Nicholas & Swales, Caspar, 1999. "Modelling and forecasting regional service employment in Great Britain1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 429-453, August.

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