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Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks

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Author Info
Reinhart, Carmen
Reinhart, Vincent

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Abstract

Using annual data for Colombia over the last thirty years and a new battery of econometric techniques, we test opposing theories that explain macroeconomic fluctuations: The neoclassical synthesis, which posits that, in the presence of temporary price rigidity, an unanticipated monetary expansion produces output gains that erode over time with increases in the price level; and an alternative explanation, which focuses on "real" technological or preference shocks as the sources of output changes. The coefficients from these systems are used to examine two basic propositions: the long-run neutrality of nominal quantities with respect to permanent movements in the money stock; and the short-run sensitivity of output to inflation.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13839/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13839.

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Date of creation: Mar 1991
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Publication status: Published in IMF Staff Papers 4.38(1991): pp. 53-86
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13839

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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy exchange rates output capital controls multipliers;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. David H. Small & Richard D. Porter, 1989. "Understanding the behavior of M2 and V2," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 244-254.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1984. "On the monetary-macro dynamics of Colombia and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 183-201. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Peter Montiel & Jonathan David Ostry, 1991. "Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/29, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jere R. Behrman & James Hanson, 1979. "Short-Term Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number behr79-1.
  8. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "Coffee, money and inflation in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(11-12), pages 1107-1117. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ohanian, Lee E., 1988. "The spurious effects of unit roots on vector autoregressions : A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 251-266, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Dinero, Interés, Inflación y Fluctuaciones económicas en Colombia desde 1958," Borradores de Economia 044, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  2. José R Sánchez-Fung, 2000. "Money Demand, PPP and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Developing Economy," Studies in Economics 0015, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
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