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Fluctuaciones Del Producto Y Choque Monetarios: Evidencia Colombiana

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  • CARMEN M REINHART

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  • VINCENT R REINHART

Abstract

Usando información anual para Colombia en los últimos treinta años y una batería nueva de técnicas econométricas, evaluamos dos teorías opuestas que explican las fluctuaciones económicas: la síntesis neoclásica, que plantea que en presencia de rigidez temporal en los precios, una expansión monetaria no anticipada produce ganancias de producto que se desvanecen en el tiempo con incrementos del nivel de precios; y una explicación alternativa, que se centra en choques tecnológicos y de preferencia “reales” como fuente de las variaciones en el producto.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (1991)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:005311

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  1. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  2. Peter J. Montiel & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1991. "Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 872-900, December.
  3. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
  4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  6. Robert J. Barro, 1979. "Money and Output in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil," NBER Chapters, in: Short-Term Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America, pages 177-200 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 79-90, Summer.
  8. Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 198, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "Coffee, money and inflation in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(11-12), pages 1107-1117.
  10. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  11. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
  13. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1020-27, December.
  14. Ohanian, Lee E., 1988. "The spurious effects of unit roots on vector autoregressions : A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 251-266, November.
  15. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1984. "On the monetary-macro dynamics of Colombia and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 183-201.
  16. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December.
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Cited by:
  1. José Mauricio Salazar Sáenz, . "Evaluación de pronóstico de una red neuronal sobre el PIB en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 575, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Cristina Fernández & Andrés González, . "Integración y Vulneralidad Externa en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 156, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Juan Carlos Echeverry, 1993. "Indicadores de política y canales de transmisión monetaria. Colombia: 1975-1991," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  4. Juan Carlos Echeverry, . "The rise and Perpetuation of a Moderate Inflation, Colombia 1970-1991," Borradores de Economia 050, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Carlos Gustavo Cano, . "Regla fiscal y estabilidad macroeconómica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 607, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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