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Testing Integration of Macroeconomic Time Series in Transitional Socialist Economies. A Modification of Perron Test

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  • Krzysztof Rybinski

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    Abstract

    The presence of structural breaks reduces the power of integration tests. A number of methods were suggested to improve the statistical properties of integration tests in the presence of structural breaks. The most known are Perron tests, which allow to test for the level of integration of time series with one structural break. Perron tests allow for two types of structural breaks: additive outlier an innovative outlier. These tests are, however, not very useful in testing the level of integration of macroeconomic time series in countries in transition from centrally-planned to market economy. In such case one should expect two structural breaks to affect the time series: one at the beginning and one at the end of the transformation process. Test that allows for two additive outlier type structural breaks in time series is developed in this paper. This test has superior power as compared to standard Dickey-Fuller and Perron tests. This paper provides asymptotic distribution as well as finite sample properties of proposed test. Therefore practitioners receive a reliable tool for analyzing macroeconomic processes in transitional economies. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1003059724912
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Economics of Planning.

    Volume (Year): 30 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 127-179

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:30:y:1997:i:2:p:127-179

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=113294

    Related research

    Keywords: integration; unit root tests; structural breaks; Monte Carlo; response surface;

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1993. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," International Finance Discussion Papers 440, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    6. Edmonds, G.J. & O'Brien, R.J. & Podivinsky, J.M., 1992. "Unit root tests and mean shifts," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9215, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    7. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    8. Hendry, David F., 1984. "Monte carlo experimentation in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 937-976 Elsevier.
    9. Bruno, Michael, 1989. "Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 275-306, March.
    10. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    11. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
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